"Attack on US Jets In UK: Iran Escalation and Saudi-China Shift (HM Intelligence)

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welcome back to another world blaze today i have special guest daniel from hm intelligence to help

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us make sense of what in the hell has been going on in the world with all the conflicts.

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So we will be discussing a little bit about what's going on with Iran, the developments

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there with some maybe strange relationships.

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Hopefully Daniel will shed some light on what's going on with that.

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And then we're going to hopefully touch a little bit on the Ukraine-Russia conflict that seems

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to be never ending.

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And so without holding Daniel up too much longer, I'm going to bring him in and welcome

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Daniel. Welcome back. Thank you. It's been a while. Glad you had time for this.

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No worries. Thank you for having me.

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Right. Oh, man. Okay, sir. So let's get into, let's just get into things. I know you like to

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like to get rolling. So what just happened, I saw you make a post on it this morning because

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apparently about four hours ago, we have this here where UK police evacuate homes near airbase

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used by U.S. and detained men on suspected explosive offensive.

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So as of September 27, 2026,

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looks like the police declared a major incident near RAF Fairford

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following the arrest of several men on suspicion of explosive offenses.

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And the air base serves as European hub for United States Air Force operations

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in the Middle East, including flights over the Persian Gulf.

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I know this is brand new, but you being who you are, I'm sure you've probably already found a few things out.

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I just wondered if you could shed any light on this situation or if you know anything about it.

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I mean, there's pretty limited information at the moment from what I've seen outside of what you just said.

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Five people were arrested.

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It looks like one white British male and four black British males.

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can really pick their ethnicities specifically,

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but yeah, there's a photo of them all detained on the ground

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with armed police.

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And then there was also videos of EOD clearing two vans,

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two white vans that were parked near to the airport.

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Another kind of interesting tidbit that I saw was the US had moved

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their, like spaced out the aircraft that were based in Fairford.

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So they're now like separated by a few hundred metres around the tarmac,

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which kind of to me indicates that at least they believe

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that the targets were going to be the aircraft

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and now they're trying to spread them out

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to make the targeting of multiple aircraft more difficult.

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There's also videos of like heightened force protection

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at the base with armoured vehicles doing patrols around the perimeter.

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So it definitely seems like a pretty significant threat.

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I mean, it's pretty easy to speculate who might be behind the threat.

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The assessment would be that Iran in some way has planned and directed this type of activity.

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They threatened earlier this year that if the UK did allow the US to use their bases for operations against them,

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then they would become legitimate targets by the Iranian regime.

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So it's not a huge leap of analytical theory to start pointing towards Iran as the perpetrator behind this.

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Whether the individuals were aware that that is who they were acting on behalf is currently unclear.

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There's a possibility that they were maybe convinced or put forward to do it under the guise of like a humanitarian mission.

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It's become like a thing in the UK where people opposing, especially Israel's war, go out and conduct sabotage operations against defense infrastructure and military aircraft.

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It's happened, I think I said that earlier this year or last year.

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I can't remember the exact day.

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But some people got onto the runway and started spray painting up military aircraft, stuff like that.

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So it's possible that these individuals were encouraged under a different guise to conduct this type of operation, though the presence of EOD kind of indicates a much higher level of capability here.

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So, yeah.

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That's interesting.

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So I didn't even consider that.

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This could simply also just be some kind of a protest.

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which is

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so and even with that being said

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have you been able to

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confirm on any sources out there

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as to whether or not there was actually

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explosives that they actually had explosives

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on hand? No there hasn't been

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any reports of like explosions

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in the area

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so it doesn't appear that there was like a controlled

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demolition that took place or anything like

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that so

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currently no and also like

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depending on their level

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of intelligence that the authorities had when they were interdicting these individuals,

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bringing in EOD may have just been a precaution.

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Like, you need to take it to the highest level of threat.

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If there was the possibility that these people had access or the capability to create homemade

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explosives, then I'm sure the precautions would be taken and EOD would be the first

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people to clear the vehicle anyway.

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So it's quite possible there was no explosives, and it was just a precaution.

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Got it.

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So just precaution.

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But it seemed to trigger a pretty massive response.

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So something definitely to watch, right?

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And it's not far-fetched that this isn't tied to, as you said, to Iran and what's going on.

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They did make threats about attacking US bases around Europe as well as the Gulf states.

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Yeah, definitely.

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And there's been like the Telegraph, a newspaper in the UK.

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I don't know if you've heard of it.

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They wrote an article a few weeks ago, I believe, that they said that they had information that

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Iran was smuggling people into the UK using the migrant chains coming over in small boats.

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So there's definitely the possibility here that it is like a cell that was either directed

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or pushed by Iran.

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Maybe there's not enough information now, but considering this type of event, this type of action, what do you assess may be the UK response to something like this?

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I'd say it'd be pretty low level, to be completely honest.

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The UK could be pretty soft on this type of stuff.

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I think there'd probably be some harsh words spoken, possibly some sanctions.

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if they have a reasonable level of intelligence

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that they're willing to go public with,

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because that's the other challenging thing, right?

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It clearly seems likely that the government knew of these individuals

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and interdicted them before they were mounting their attack,

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possibly in the final stages of their attack

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to ensure that they could be quite easily charged.

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How they got their information could be a bit more difficult

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to publicly disclose.

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So that will also kind of come into play

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on how much they're going to call out Iran.

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So say they use like high-level SIGINT

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to intercept communications,

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it's going to be pretty difficult to turn around

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and be like, well, here's a top secret report

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that indicates X, Y, and Z.

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They don't really want to go public with that stuff

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because it shows capabilities.

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And they may, well, they don't certainly want

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to be using it again and again and again.

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So if they have reasonable information

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that they could publicly go with,

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I'd say they'll call out Iran,

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but outside of expelling some diplomats,

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I don't think they'll do much.

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Possibly provide more aircraft for air-to-air refueling

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for a defensive effort in the Middle East,

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but it's highly unlikely they would commit

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to any type of kinetic operations against Iran.

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Yeah, I'm wondering though that because this has been reported as an attack primarily against US presence as on the base there or that facility, would this possibly strain further relations between the UK and the US?

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I think if the attack was successful, then it probably would.

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But it being interdicted, I think, will limit the kind of political fallout there.

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You never know with Trump, to be completely honest.

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He does sometimes take some interesting stances in public media, let's say.

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So I think he's an extremely hard individual to predict.

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So he could quite possibly try and flip this on a look how fucked the UK is.

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They've got terrorists everywhere type of rant.

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Right.

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But at the end of the day, these people were detained before they conducted the operation.

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So I think it's a very limited kind of.

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Yeah.

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I just asked that question, Daniel, because it seems like the relations have been strained from the outset

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with this Iran conflict just because the proximity to Strait of Hormuz

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and the fact that the UK and surrounding European nations

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get so much out of the Strait or shipped from there in terms of resources,

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and it's put a strain on Europe.

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So I just wondered if this, and of course you gave a solid answer, I understand,

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but it just does make me wonder if at what point where the final straw will land

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so to speak, to break that camel's back in relations between the U.S. and European nations,

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and maybe specifically the U.K. And so directly targeting U.S. assets, for example,

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as what we just saw or had reported, to me, regardless of how you look at it,

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it's still on U.K. soil, right? It's still there. So I just wonder how much more Europe will take

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before they either get involved directly or connectively or just turn their back on the U.S.

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And I don't know if that will happen, but it just seems like things are escalating and could get to that point.

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And I might be wrong.

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It's just how it appears.

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I think this is the grand challenge of gray zone operations, right?

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It's so hard to point at one specific thing and be like, that's why we're going to war with them.

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It's very hard to justify to your own people.

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that Iran did that.

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So we're going to war with Iran.

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I guess that's like,

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Russia loves it as well, right?

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This is the great game

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that they've been playing

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for the past two years at this point

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of like,

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will you attack us

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because we blew up

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some kind of energy facility

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or an arms depot

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or flew an explosive drone

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into an airport?

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Like, which one of these

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is the final straw?

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One of them could be, but it's very hard to make that argument to your own people that that's why we're going to war with them.

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Whereas to throw back to the Nazis invading Poland, it's a lot easier to be like, we're going to war with the Nazis because they invaded Poland.

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Because it's such a solid thing to point at and be like, that's why we're doing it.

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Whereas like Greyzone, by virtue of its name, is just below the threshold of war where it's like, it's annoying and it's bad, costs lives and money and hurts your economy.

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But it's not enough to like warrant kinetic or like military response.

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Yeah, that's kind of how I look at it.

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Like yeah especially like the use of these guys quite possibly had no idea that they were working for Iran or like it be extremely hard and tentative to prove their links to Iran again publicly using declassified or unclassified information So like when you taking that information to say the UN to be like hey look the UN conducted a terrorist attack on our soil

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Iran can just be like, we don't know who those people are.

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How do you know it's us?

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They just deny it outright, period.

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And then so you're left in the situation of like,

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do you then go to war with them to prove your point or what?

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I don't know.

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It's a very tricky situation.

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And we're in a crazy time in human history, right?

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Right, right.

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I completely agree with what you said, too.

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I'm just becoming more and more concerned with U.S. and European relations in general.

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I mean...

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Oh, I totally agree.

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I'm not...

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You can play it.

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I'm not at the point where I'm like, well, when is the U.K. or France going to kinetically

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get involved in this conflict or war?

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It's more like, at what point are they going to start looking at the relationship and going, I'm not sure this is worth it anymore.

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And that's kind of, I guess, more of the question I was trying to ask.

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And I know there may not be enough out there yet in terms of reports or what we know to lend the UK or France or anybody else to go, okay, we're done.

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We're on our own.

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The US could stand on their own.

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but these actions and when you're looking at a specific targeted attack or attempt even if it's

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on u.s u.s assets or facilities it's still still on another nation's soils like the uk is hosting

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going okay here you can use this right and to me it's more like an attack on the uk not directly

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it's indirectly i understand that i understand where you're from but it's it's still you start

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to still wander. I would. If someone targeted any planes or whatever that were here on US bases,

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they weren't targeting US assets, for example, but UK, I would still, as the United States,

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if I was in charge, go, well, they're starting to attack the UK's assets on our own soil. Maybe

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there's something we need to look at. And so I think that's really kind of my concern is the US

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at this point in the way Trump is acting, love or hate him, it's very divisive and it's really

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causing people to look elsewhere in terms of support.

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And that's going to lead to where we go next because recently, the Houthi attack on the Saudis, for example,

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an attempt, I mean, basically they are Iranian proxies.

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I mean, that's just what they are.

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And so the world has been reporting this as just a conflict between the Houthis and the Saudis

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when it's really, to me, an attack, an indirect attack by Iran

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in an attempt to close down the ports and shipping lanes going out to the Red Sea so that it's more

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like, well, if we're going to close off the Strait of Hormuz, then we're going to close off the Red

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Sea and you're not going to be able to get anything out that direction either. And so with that,

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Saudi reaches out to the US and Trump says no. He says, well, we'll offer you intelligence,

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but we're not going to do anything else. And then so Saudi is looking for support elsewhere.

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And surprisingly, they reached out to China for that support.

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And it seems that China has stepped in and has asked Iran basically to cool it down.

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Do you have any insight to that or any assessments or anything that you can give us as to why that would be and what China's intention would be in actually stepping in and telling Iran to chill out on this situation for a bit?

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That was exactly how I was going to reframe that question as I was explaining it.

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Because I think that is the far more pertinent and much more time sensitive, let's say, just to quickly go back.

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I think-

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Sure.

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In Europe, I think that's a long way off, right?

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I think that's like a 20, 25, 30-year problem if things continue down the path that they're currently going.

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I think that problem though in the Middle East is a much more right now problem, especially

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not just for Saudi, for the UAE, for Bahrain, for Qatar, for Kuwait, for Iraq's already

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trying to remove US presence.

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I think that's a right now problem and something that could become a huge just issue for the

231
00:17:26,752 --> 00:17:29,492
US presence in the Middle East.

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But this one in particular, I think is a crazy situation.

233
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And it's a great chest move by Iran, right?

234
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They've ramped up the pressure tenfold.

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From what I understand and from what I've read, they sent military advisors to Yemen

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to provide on-the-ground support to the Houthis for this campaign

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down the coast of the...

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down to Baal-Mandeb Strait, I think that's how it's that.

239
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So they are heavily involved there.

240
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They are on the ground, promising them more support,

241
00:18:10,972 --> 00:18:13,252
more commanders, more training, more weapons,

242
00:18:13,652 --> 00:18:16,152
if they got that done, and they got it done.

243
00:18:16,932 --> 00:18:20,092
And not only did the US or Trump, the Trump administration,

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refused to provide kinetic support to Saudi Arabia.

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They then met with the Houthis a few days later

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and made a deal with them that the Houthis wouldn't target,

247
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well, basically anybody else apart from Saudi Arabia.

248
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So it kind of takes it to that next level.

249
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And I think that is what pushed Saudi to reach out to China for support.

250
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Interesting move though, right?

251
00:18:47,492 --> 00:18:51,092
to me to reach out to China, who's in complete opposition to the US.

252
00:18:51,272 --> 00:18:54,052
The US is supposed to be the ally to the Gulf states.

253
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The US doesn't step in to support them.

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And now the Gulf states, you know, what's interesting to me, Daniel, in all of this,

255
00:19:02,332 --> 00:19:07,112
though, if the Gulf states have been opposed to Iran and the regime all this time and they

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don't like what's happening, I haven't seen any case or reports, at least that I have seen,

257
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where any of the Gulf states have stepped up to support each other in doing anything.

258
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They're relying on air defenses.

259
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They're just defending themselves from the bombardment,

260
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but there hasn't been any forward attacks, for example, or engagement.

261
00:19:26,632 --> 00:19:28,192
So, yeah, go ahead.

262
00:19:28,192 --> 00:19:30,112
I was going to say, I think there's probably a fear

263
00:19:30,112 --> 00:19:34,392
that if they do conduct operations against Iran,

264
00:19:35,112 --> 00:19:38,132
it'll just ramp the conflict up to the next level.

265
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And I don't think they see that as beneficial.

266
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They were slash probably still are,

267
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Hoping that this can all be resolved and we can just go back to the status quo.

268
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They can keep selling their oil and move on with their lives.

269
00:19:54,972 --> 00:19:57,772
But it's becoming less and less likely.

270
00:19:58,632 --> 00:20:03,332
Is Iran really that big of a threat though if they all truly band together?

271
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Like really considerably combine all their resources and point it and direct it at Iran if they had to?

272
00:20:11,192 --> 00:20:14,152
Or are they still at a disadvantage even if they did that?

273
00:20:14,152 --> 00:20:20,872
Yeah, I think sadly the technical situation within the Strait of Hormuz has shown that

274
00:20:20,872 --> 00:20:29,572
outside of boots on the ground, reopening their strait militarily is nigh on impossible.

275
00:20:29,572 --> 00:20:38,732
They have that thing locked down just through a pile of different ways through having boats

276
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that can lay mines quite quickly and move.

277
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And then they have their drones that can attack ships.

278
00:20:43,652 --> 00:20:48,272
They have shorter ship missiles that can fire out of dug-in positions.

279
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It's basically a tactical nightmare for any military operation against it without just taking the land.

280
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And if you're invading a part of the country, you may as well just invade it all, right?

281
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It's like taking the mountains on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz is going to be just as painful.

282
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you may as well keep going because at that point

283
00:21:14,312 --> 00:21:16,432
they're going to fight you to the bitter end.

284
00:21:16,712 --> 00:21:18,752
You need to remove the government and just take over.

285
00:21:20,532 --> 00:21:23,692
So yeah, I don't think also militarily,

286
00:21:24,752 --> 00:21:26,032
in the nicest way possible,

287
00:21:26,472 --> 00:21:31,092
the Gulf states are not high-functioning military organizations.

288
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Right.

289
00:21:32,732 --> 00:21:34,232
As I think Saudi has shown,

290
00:21:35,032 --> 00:21:37,632
regardless of how much money you can pump into your military,

291
00:21:38,052 --> 00:21:41,432
there's a bit more to it than just having Gucci kit

292
00:21:41,432 --> 00:21:57,412
There's a bit of warrior ethos and good training and motivation and how you should fight, troops fight, which I think is something people have been saying about the Saudi conflict against the Houthis for years.

293
00:21:57,412 --> 00:22:17,972
I know it's not a hugely talked about conflict in most circles, but it's been a running joke within the intel community that Saudi Arabia has done a pretty piss-weak job at fighting what is essentially a militia for 10 years now.

294
00:22:18,692 --> 00:22:22,692
In reality, they should have cleared this problem up a long time ago.

295
00:22:22,812 --> 00:22:25,972
They have something like 250 modern fighter jets.

296
00:22:25,972 --> 00:22:26,532
Yes.

297
00:22:27,412 --> 00:22:32,132
They shouldn't even need to reach out to the US for kinetic support.

298
00:22:32,312 --> 00:22:34,572
They should be able to conduct their own kinetic operations.

299
00:22:35,812 --> 00:22:36,472
Why can't they?

300
00:22:36,892 --> 00:22:37,892
It's bigger questions here.

301
00:22:38,612 --> 00:22:39,032
Yeah.

302
00:22:39,872 --> 00:22:45,452
It's interesting you said that because I literally had this conversation with someone on another show that I was on.

303
00:22:46,352 --> 00:22:48,012
And you're right.

304
00:22:48,072 --> 00:22:49,732
Not a lot of people are talking about this.

305
00:22:50,492 --> 00:22:55,152
And I was asked, well, why can't Saudi just handle their own shit, basically?

306
00:22:55,952 --> 00:22:57,232
And I might be wrong.

307
00:22:57,412 --> 00:22:59,212
But this is how I saw it.

308
00:22:59,332 --> 00:23:00,592
And it's similar to what you said.

309
00:23:01,352 --> 00:23:04,752
It's like, sure, they have the air defenses, right?

310
00:23:05,352 --> 00:23:07,372
But they don't have the ground.

311
00:23:07,512 --> 00:23:21,152
They don't have the ground capabilities because they have troops, but they're not really properly trained and they don't have enough to really support a full-on engagement away from their own country, for example.

312
00:23:21,812 --> 00:23:30,992
And the other thing I saw is if they do that, it leaves their homeland vulnerable because they don't have enough capability to defend themselves if they split their forces up like that.

313
00:23:31,172 --> 00:23:40,352
And what you said about the warrior ethos and the training, I completely see that because they really do rely on mercenary forces and outside proxies to handle most of their actual conflicts.

314
00:23:41,172 --> 00:23:53,132
So it's almost like I don't know if they have a sense of patriotism in their country to where people are literally willing to fight or if they're just so used to that capitalist money and the tourist dollars that that's the only thing really holding it together.

315
00:23:54,692 --> 00:23:58,332
It was kind of my take on that and what I see.

316
00:23:59,072 --> 00:24:00,612
So Saudi is in trouble.

317
00:24:00,612 --> 00:24:06,592
I don't think they can really stand on their own and really defend themselves unless one of the allies really steps in to help them.

318
00:24:06,592 --> 00:24:16,232
So if this continues, do you see Saudi possibly being ran over and taken over and controlled?

319
00:24:16,952 --> 00:24:18,012
I don't think so.

320
00:24:18,112 --> 00:24:22,752
I don't think the US would allow that, to be completely honest.

321
00:24:23,492 --> 00:24:30,592
At the moment, Saudi is still a very essential ally for the US and the Middle East and the rest of the Western world.

322
00:24:30,592 --> 00:24:36,752
right? The UK has now stepped in to help them provide their defense from missiles. So they're

323
00:24:36,752 --> 00:24:43,272
providing like air-tier refueling capabilities for defensive operations only. That's the first

324
00:24:43,272 --> 00:24:49,812
sign of like, hey, we can't let this get too bad. Like the price of diesel in the UK, we pay per

325
00:24:49,812 --> 00:24:58,872
litre, has gone up 35p, which is 35 cents basically in the last two months. It's a huge, like basically

326
00:24:58,872 --> 00:25:01,372
25% increase in a few months.

327
00:25:01,792 --> 00:25:03,032
Just astronomical.

328
00:25:03,832 --> 00:25:06,992
So I don't think the Houthis

329
00:25:06,992 --> 00:25:09,492
aren't going to run an efficient

330
00:25:09,492 --> 00:25:12,512
oil revenue department, are they?

331
00:25:13,032 --> 00:25:14,212
No, they won't.

332
00:25:14,632 --> 00:25:17,532
The Western world can't just let that all fall apart.

333
00:25:18,272 --> 00:25:20,492
I agree that they can't.

334
00:25:21,452 --> 00:25:22,952
But let's just be honest.

335
00:25:23,452 --> 00:25:25,572
The UK and France,

336
00:25:25,652 --> 00:25:26,572
because even France announced

337
00:25:26,572 --> 00:25:28,212
that they were going to support Saudi.

338
00:25:28,872 --> 00:25:32,512
And so they weren't going to do anything until Trump said no.

339
00:25:33,532 --> 00:25:34,052
Okay.

340
00:25:34,412 --> 00:25:34,592
Yeah.

341
00:25:34,592 --> 00:25:43,552
And the biggest issue I see is I think that the U.S. is not doing a good job at stepping up to defend their allies.

342
00:25:43,952 --> 00:25:48,032
Because if we're being honest, the U.S. did start this and get everybody into this.

343
00:25:48,932 --> 00:25:52,552
And so you can't just, you don't have to say I did it.

344
00:25:52,552 --> 00:26:07,944
But the reality is if you going to do this you can just tell an important country like Saudi Arabia who has literally twisted themselves up in pretzels to accommodate the US all these years and the Western nations

345
00:26:08,164 --> 00:26:17,723
And then say, we're not going to support you when you're getting attacked by Iranian proxies, which wouldn't be doing this to this degree if we weren't at war with Iran in the first place.

346
00:26:17,723 --> 00:26:21,343
I mean, they still would be in a conflict, but it wouldn't be what we're seeing.

347
00:26:21,503 --> 00:26:24,883
This seems to be a very planned, directed attack.

348
00:26:25,684 --> 00:26:25,783
Yeah.

349
00:26:26,143 --> 00:26:27,883
Due to what's happening with the street.

350
00:26:28,603 --> 00:26:34,184
And so I'm glad the UK is stepping up because the reason I am is because they need to get involved.

351
00:26:34,323 --> 00:26:36,444
I mean, they're also one of Oman's oldest European allies.

352
00:26:36,563 --> 00:26:38,043
And it's like, hold on.

353
00:26:38,123 --> 00:26:41,343
Iran's been antagonizing Oman and their territorial waters all these years.

354
00:26:41,424 --> 00:26:43,403
But yet the UK hasn't really done nothing either.

355
00:26:43,583 --> 00:26:45,723
But they want to not defend you.

356
00:26:45,763 --> 00:26:48,283
I know you're for the UK, but the UK government.

357
00:26:48,803 --> 00:26:49,083
I'm not.

358
00:26:49,383 --> 00:26:50,363
I'm from New Zealand.

359
00:26:50,863 --> 00:26:51,323
Okay, fine.

360
00:26:51,403 --> 00:26:52,603
Well, still, gotcha.

361
00:26:52,603 --> 00:27:07,283
But the UK government is, they themselves are crying about what's going on, but they have not done anything all these years to get ahead of the situation that everyone saw was going to happen eventually.

362
00:27:08,203 --> 00:27:20,424
So it's just very interesting to see how Trump's reactions have such an impact on the relations and responses in the Middle East as well as Europe.

363
00:27:20,424 --> 00:27:30,323
And so it's almost like, is Trump smart, not Trump himself, but is his administration smart enough to be able to do these things for an intentional response possibly?

364
00:27:31,323 --> 00:27:43,883
Or is it something that, I don't know, I'm trying to understand and maybe you could shed light from your perspective on why the Trump administration would deny an ally like Saudi Arabia any support.

365
00:27:43,883 --> 00:27:46,603
I

366
00:27:46,603 --> 00:27:48,623
in my opinion

367
00:27:48,623 --> 00:27:50,703
slash assessment would be

368
00:27:50,703 --> 00:27:52,783
I think they are currently

369
00:27:52,783 --> 00:27:54,684
a bit too tied up in the Strait of Hormuz

370
00:27:54,684 --> 00:27:56,823
I don't think they

371
00:27:56,823 --> 00:27:59,023
had basically

372
00:27:59,023 --> 00:27:59,883
the ammunition

373
00:27:59,883 --> 00:28:02,924
slash even the will

374
00:28:02,924 --> 00:28:04,723
to go and open

375
00:28:04,723 --> 00:28:06,543
another front that could

376
00:28:06,543 --> 00:28:08,723
then start targeting US

377
00:28:08,723 --> 00:28:09,983
assets and

378
00:28:09,983 --> 00:28:12,623
the deal they've made with the Houthis

379
00:28:12,623 --> 00:28:18,383
still allows cargo from every other country to pass through the Barbell-Mandeb Strait.

380
00:28:18,983 --> 00:28:24,123
If the US was to attack them and that was to end, that strait would be essentially shut.

381
00:28:24,783 --> 00:28:30,083
And that is like the lifeline between Asia and Europe.

382
00:28:30,743 --> 00:28:31,483
That would be huge.

383
00:28:31,883 --> 00:28:32,863
The US doesn't really care.

384
00:28:33,403 --> 00:28:38,283
But again, as you said, this is kind of all starting because of a war Trump started.

385
00:28:38,903 --> 00:28:42,323
And yeah, so there would be a lot of blame thrown in there.

386
00:28:42,623 --> 00:28:46,543
Yeah, that's kind of my read on it.

387
00:28:47,023 --> 00:28:50,883
Why China, like Saudi knows the game they're playing, right?

388
00:28:51,184 --> 00:28:55,303
Saudi, they very purposefully reached out to China.

389
00:28:55,783 --> 00:28:57,243
They know exactly what they're doing there.

390
00:28:57,303 --> 00:28:58,943
They know the messaging they're sending there.

391
00:28:59,323 --> 00:29:04,843
But also China has recently restarted buying diesel on the open market,

392
00:29:04,843 --> 00:29:09,623
which they had stopped doing post the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,

393
00:29:09,763 --> 00:29:11,723
which kind of helped keep the price down.

394
00:29:12,623 --> 00:29:22,903
It's unclear why they had restarted buying it, whether they started to run low on their stockpiles or whether they just wanted to spice the market up a bit.

395
00:29:23,823 --> 00:29:24,603
Possibly, yeah.

396
00:29:25,763 --> 00:29:32,684
But they used to buy something like 30% of all of the oil that came out of the Strait of Homoose.

397
00:29:33,203 --> 00:29:37,063
So they were a very big customer there that they're now not really getting.

398
00:29:37,063 --> 00:29:40,164
there's from what I've read

399
00:29:40,164 --> 00:29:42,063
I think a lot of Chinese ships still

400
00:29:42,063 --> 00:29:44,424
manage to pass through both of the blockades

401
00:29:44,424 --> 00:29:46,444
you know

402
00:29:46,444 --> 00:29:48,243
I don't think the US

403
00:29:48,243 --> 00:29:50,103
is all that willing to stop

404
00:29:50,103 --> 00:29:52,283
a Chinese flagged

405
00:29:52,283 --> 00:29:53,664
vessel or at least like

406
00:29:53,664 --> 00:29:56,103
fuel going to China because that

407
00:29:56,103 --> 00:29:58,243
would just start creating problems

408
00:29:58,243 --> 00:30:02,203
yeah so it makes sense that they want

409
00:30:02,203 --> 00:30:04,164
to keep the fuel lines open

410
00:30:04,164 --> 00:30:06,143
because they also need the fuel

411
00:30:06,143 --> 00:30:10,783
Especially the fuel going east because that's predominantly going to them.

412
00:30:11,583 --> 00:30:19,023
Whereas Saudi can still ship their fuel west to Europe and then out to America.

413
00:30:20,623 --> 00:30:21,783
Real quick, something.

414
00:30:22,164 --> 00:30:28,184
So when you brought up what was going on with the oil as far as China's concerned.

415
00:30:28,703 --> 00:30:36,043
Now, we don't have it up, but as far as Iran's oil, I think China was buying about actually 80% of their oil.

416
00:30:36,143 --> 00:30:38,763
Yeah, I mean all the oil through the straightforward moves.

417
00:30:38,763 --> 00:30:39,164
Yeah, the entire.

418
00:30:39,664 --> 00:30:41,083
Yeah, so they're buying Bahrain.

419
00:30:41,963 --> 00:30:43,684
No, no, this is where I'm going with this,

420
00:30:43,803 --> 00:30:47,723
is that it brought this up in my mind when you were speaking

421
00:30:47,723 --> 00:30:51,503
because there was the report of frozen assets

422
00:30:51,503 --> 00:30:54,623
where they were saying, oh, China has frozen Iran's assets.

423
00:30:54,803 --> 00:30:55,783
But they haven't really.

424
00:30:55,963 --> 00:30:58,924
It's just China, it says here that China holds an estimated

425
00:30:58,924 --> 00:31:01,263
20 billion to 50 billion belonging to Iran.

426
00:31:01,263 --> 00:31:04,203
The funds accumulated from unpaid oil sales

427
00:31:04,203 --> 00:31:07,763
because strict United States sanctions block standard financial transfers.

428
00:31:08,403 --> 00:31:13,643
And Iran has used some of these blocked funds only to buy Chinese machinery and goods, rather, whatever.

429
00:31:14,823 --> 00:31:20,424
But basically, this war, it seems that, this is where I'm going with it, Daniel.

430
00:31:20,583 --> 00:31:26,023
So what it seems like is Trump, what I see is Trump doesn't want to get,

431
00:31:26,023 --> 00:31:29,043
and I think you're correct in what you said, because you're right.

432
00:31:29,043 --> 00:31:36,203
If the US goes to help Saudi Arabia, it does further dilute the US capabilities.

433
00:31:36,703 --> 00:31:40,063
And they're so tied up, like you said, with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz right now.

434
00:31:41,543 --> 00:31:47,223
But I think Trump is also, he said it before, he doesn't really want to go all in and send troops.

435
00:31:47,383 --> 00:31:50,603
Because I think he's holding back because he doesn't want US troops to die.

436
00:31:50,763 --> 00:31:52,803
But there's only so much you can do from far.

437
00:31:52,883 --> 00:31:56,823
It's like you said before, it's like you're either all in on something like this or you're not.

438
00:31:56,823 --> 00:32:03,723
so it looks like he's trying to take another approach which is which is strangling them

439
00:32:03,723 --> 00:32:09,323
economically and so if china can't do business and can't get access and can't even give iran

440
00:32:09,323 --> 00:32:14,963
the funds after after they've you know have the ability to take the oil they can't give it to iran

441
00:32:14,963 --> 00:32:19,143
because because of all these sanctions that are going on and blocking funds from being transferred

442
00:32:19,143 --> 00:32:26,223
iran is withering away economically and so i see that's why that they directed the houthis to attack

443
00:32:26,223 --> 00:32:30,263
side of rape was like, well, if you're going to choke us, we're going to choke you, which is

444
00:32:30,263 --> 00:32:34,323
leading them to say, okay, US help us, US can't because they can't

445
00:32:34,323 --> 00:32:37,983
really spread themselves too thin. And now they're reaching to China, as you said, as

446
00:32:37,983 --> 00:32:42,263
a single like, hey, US, look, we're going to have to go to your rival here

447
00:32:42,263 --> 00:32:46,143
if you're not going to step in, which creates

448
00:32:46,143 --> 00:32:50,343
a really interesting situation. And it's really meant to direct pressure at the US

449
00:32:50,343 --> 00:32:54,383
to act in a way that Trump probably doesn't want

450
00:32:54,383 --> 00:32:56,183
to. But then

451
00:32:56,183 --> 00:32:58,243
that goes back to the relationships

452
00:32:58,243 --> 00:33:00,164
we have with Europe right now. I mean,

453
00:33:00,223 --> 00:33:02,363
if Trump did decide to go all in,

454
00:33:02,483 --> 00:33:04,363
is Europe really willing to back that

455
00:33:04,363 --> 00:33:04,664
play?

456
00:33:05,823 --> 00:33:08,483
I think it's unlikely. I think Europe

457
00:33:08,483 --> 00:33:10,443
wouldn't participate.

458
00:33:11,303 --> 00:33:12,424
No one's going to

459
00:33:12,424 --> 00:33:14,043
stop the US, but

460
00:33:14,043 --> 00:33:16,483
they're not going to get involved. There's no

461
00:33:16,483 --> 00:33:17,143
buy-in there.

462
00:33:18,683 --> 00:33:20,063
I don't think

463
00:33:20,063 --> 00:33:22,463
Trump could go all in, right? I think

464
00:33:22,463 --> 00:33:23,983
as much as he wants to,

465
00:33:24,383 --> 00:33:26,503
I don't think. I mean, your guy's midterms

466
00:33:26,503 --> 00:33:27,303
are in two months.

467
00:33:28,183 --> 00:33:29,924
He's definitely not doing it before that.

468
00:33:29,924 --> 00:33:31,323
Because if he did...

469
00:33:31,323 --> 00:33:33,223
But he already said he doesn't

470
00:33:33,223 --> 00:33:34,123
care.

471
00:33:35,203 --> 00:33:37,183
Because he's not...

472
00:33:37,183 --> 00:33:38,823
It's not for him, you know what I'm saying?

473
00:33:39,063 --> 00:33:39,463
Of course.

474
00:33:40,223 --> 00:33:43,924
There's caring, and then there's like...

475
00:33:45,323 --> 00:33:47,583
He would be impeached and removed from office

476
00:33:47,583 --> 00:33:49,083
within... Oh, of course.

477
00:33:49,803 --> 00:33:51,303
They'll attempt to do so anyway.

478
00:33:51,723 --> 00:33:53,463
Yeah, and then it would just become a massive

479
00:33:53,463 --> 00:33:58,363
It's a political issue and yeah, I had a point.

480
00:33:58,363 --> 00:33:59,363
Shit.

481
00:33:59,363 --> 00:34:00,363
Sorry.

482
00:34:00,363 --> 00:34:01,363
I don't know.

483
00:34:01,363 --> 00:34:03,363
I mind blanked.

484
00:34:03,363 --> 00:34:04,363
Damn it.

485
00:34:04,363 --> 00:34:07,963
You got too much going on up there.

486
00:34:07,963 --> 00:34:08,963
Yeah.

487
00:34:08,963 --> 00:34:13,084
Trump's theory to try and economically strangle Iran.

488
00:34:13,084 --> 00:34:19,084
I was talking to someone else about this and they had a really good point is Iran.

489
00:34:19,084 --> 00:34:23,483
Yes, the US can probably strangle the Iranian economy, right?

490
00:34:23,723 --> 00:34:29,003
But Iran's willing to die for this, especially the regime.

491
00:34:29,323 --> 00:34:32,283
The regime knows if they give up, that's it.

492
00:34:32,743 --> 00:34:39,023
And the coup, the end of the Iranian regime doesn't end with them going into retirement, right?

493
00:34:39,323 --> 00:34:43,503
It ends for them swinging from cranes in the center of Tehran.

494
00:34:43,943 --> 00:34:45,003
They know this.

495
00:34:45,003 --> 00:34:49,923
So they are willing to put their people through horrific conditions.

496
00:34:52,263 --> 00:34:54,604
They were just to the end, right?

497
00:34:54,624 --> 00:34:58,263
They don't care because to them it's live or die.

498
00:34:59,084 --> 00:35:03,084
So I think the whole trying to choke them out financially,

499
00:35:04,183 --> 00:35:07,503
just it's who's going to win, who's going to last longer.

500
00:35:08,003 --> 00:35:11,503
Can the world economy survive longer than the Iranian regime?

501
00:35:11,503 --> 00:35:20,584
I think the Iranian regime can because they're willing to endure so much more suffering than the world economy is.

502
00:35:21,283 --> 00:35:30,903
There's already talk about the US treasury bonds, 30-year yields up to 5%, the price of fuels at the most they ever thought it would get to.

503
00:35:31,243 --> 00:35:39,183
It's like all of these things we're now hitting that it's like, even within the US, no one ever thought we would get here.

504
00:35:39,183 --> 00:35:44,283
and Iran's, they're not looking like they're going to give up anytime soon.

505
00:35:45,183 --> 00:35:52,403
So how much more can everyone put up with to try and see if Iran will collapse?

506
00:35:52,983 --> 00:35:57,683
Because I don't think they will, just purely out of survival.

507
00:35:59,883 --> 00:36:03,523
Well, I think that's a very interesting perspective to consider.

508
00:36:03,523 --> 00:36:05,064
the

509
00:36:05,064 --> 00:36:07,823
the only thing I would say to that

510
00:36:07,823 --> 00:36:10,003
would be that

511
00:36:10,003 --> 00:36:13,164
yes because

512
00:36:13,164 --> 00:36:15,843
yes to a degree that we're

513
00:36:15,843 --> 00:36:18,084
facing a radical

514
00:36:18,084 --> 00:36:19,723
fundamentalist group of people

515
00:36:19,723 --> 00:36:21,803
who in the end

516
00:36:21,803 --> 00:36:23,423
enjoy their power and their money

517
00:36:23,423 --> 00:36:26,003
and the reason they're going to keep doing this is for power and money

518
00:36:26,003 --> 00:36:27,983
it's not so much about their belief system after a while

519
00:36:27,983 --> 00:36:29,943
that goes out the window and it's about them maintaining

520
00:36:29,943 --> 00:36:31,203
power they want to be in control

521
00:36:32,203 --> 00:36:46,604
So the question, though, if we look at it from the economic stranglehold perspective, though, if they can no longer pay their proxies to act on their behalf, at what point will that loyalty also wither away?

522
00:36:47,564 --> 00:36:50,644
And then this regime has to stand on their own.

523
00:36:50,644 --> 00:36:57,403
And once they're there, they no longer have the numbers or the ability to act outside of their borders.

524
00:36:57,403 --> 00:37:01,203
because if they do, then that leaves Iran itself proper.

525
00:37:02,423 --> 00:37:03,644
It leaves it vulnerable.

526
00:37:04,363 --> 00:37:07,104
So if they're going to have to do the work the proxies are doing

527
00:37:07,104 --> 00:37:10,283
because the proxies are no longer going to be loyal to them

528
00:37:10,283 --> 00:37:11,723
because it's really all about money.

529
00:37:11,963 --> 00:37:12,983
I mean, they don't really care

530
00:37:12,983 --> 00:37:15,323
because if it was just about the fundamentalist belief,

531
00:37:16,184 --> 00:37:18,403
then we would see ISIS involved and backing their play

532
00:37:18,403 --> 00:37:20,403
because they're also an extreme Islamist organization

533
00:37:20,403 --> 00:37:21,564
or Al-Qaeda or whatever,

534
00:37:21,983 --> 00:37:23,743
but none of those other organizations are involved.

535
00:37:23,743 --> 00:37:27,084
So I think it could be...

536
00:37:27,084 --> 00:37:28,343
Both things could be true.

537
00:37:28,443 --> 00:37:28,923
Let's put it that way.

538
00:37:29,243 --> 00:37:30,023
I think you're correct.

539
00:37:30,283 --> 00:37:33,243
But I also believe that if the money isn't flowing,

540
00:37:34,144 --> 00:37:36,383
their relationships, most of the relationships Iran has

541
00:37:36,383 --> 00:37:38,823
is really based on the funding and support

542
00:37:38,823 --> 00:37:40,423
that they can provide these other people.

543
00:37:40,943 --> 00:37:43,443
If that goes away, then organizations like the Houthis,

544
00:37:44,183 --> 00:37:46,124
I mean, they're going to still do what they do,

545
00:37:46,624 --> 00:37:48,163
but they're not doing it for Iran anymore.

546
00:37:48,463 --> 00:37:50,644
I don't think there's going to be too many other organizations

547
00:37:50,644 --> 00:37:52,503
that are going to come to Iran's aid.

548
00:37:53,084 --> 00:38:00,403
So then it's going to be interesting to see, well, now that we're facing these fundamentalists, do they have the numbers to outlast?

549
00:38:00,883 --> 00:38:05,683
And if they do have to disperse from their homeland or their mainland, they're also going to start leaving that vulnerable.

550
00:38:05,683 --> 00:38:15,223
And then that will lend to the ability for the people there to truly push back and really rise up against the IRGC, for example.

551
00:38:15,863 --> 00:38:16,823
I think they'll be too thin.

552
00:38:17,363 --> 00:38:19,783
So it could literally come down to what you said.

553
00:38:19,883 --> 00:38:21,144
Who's going to outlast who?

554
00:38:21,144 --> 00:38:27,683
right and it might actually come down to the world economy like can the world continue to

555
00:38:27,683 --> 00:38:34,544
suffer this economy for example if the world can i think iran's in trouble if they can't then we're

556
00:38:34,544 --> 00:38:39,463
screwed you know so i think you're right i think both of these things can be very true just depends

557
00:38:39,463 --> 00:38:46,963
on who's willing to outlast the other yeah i would say there was also probably waiting for the mid

558
00:38:46,963 --> 00:38:51,863
Like the Iranians are waiting to see what happens there.

559
00:38:51,863 --> 00:38:55,343
Possibly, yeah, possibly.

560
00:38:55,343 --> 00:39:07,455
I mean Trump not gonna do anything too crazy until after that So I think it just a bit of trying to apply as much pressure as they can until that point

561
00:39:07,635 --> 00:39:09,335
and then we'll see where the card's for.

562
00:39:10,055 --> 00:39:14,535
Yeah, I think the midterms may come into play, but here's the problem with the midterm thing.

563
00:39:15,835 --> 00:39:20,075
That's going to rely, if we're talking about US politics, that's going to rely on a bunch

564
00:39:20,075 --> 00:39:24,035
of people electing not just Democrats, but pretty much DSA candidates.

565
00:39:24,035 --> 00:39:30,755
And that's going to be interesting to see if they elect socialists to enter into Congress and upset the balance.

566
00:39:31,135 --> 00:39:35,055
Because as of now, there was 19 congressional candidates, which is crazy.

567
00:39:35,155 --> 00:39:35,835
That won the primaries.

568
00:39:35,955 --> 00:39:42,955
So if we go into the midterms, the only thing that's going to happen is either they lose control, the Republicans lose control, and Trump, as you said, could be impeached.

569
00:39:43,055 --> 00:39:44,175
But they've attempted that many times.

570
00:39:44,215 --> 00:39:45,035
He's never gone anywhere.

571
00:39:45,355 --> 00:39:51,635
So I'm not so much concerned with that because Trump himself has said that the midterms, regardless of what happens, he's still going to be present.

572
00:39:51,695 --> 00:39:52,075
He's right.

573
00:39:52,195 --> 00:39:53,095
He's there until 2028.

574
00:39:53,095 --> 00:39:53,615
It's going to matter.

575
00:39:54,035 --> 00:40:02,095
So, the other thing about the U.S. I've noticed is they're not too keen or quick to pull out of a conflict to save face.

576
00:40:02,675 --> 00:40:05,475
They stayed in Iraq a long time.

577
00:40:06,595 --> 00:40:09,475
We've been involved in the Middle East longer than we needed to in many instances.

578
00:40:10,135 --> 00:40:11,215
Afghanistan, you name it.

579
00:40:11,315 --> 00:40:13,715
We've always extended our welcome, unfortunately.

580
00:40:14,635 --> 00:40:19,975
And I don't know if the U.S. will pull out that quick because they don't want to look bad.

581
00:40:20,455 --> 00:40:22,615
Because if they do, they're going to have to admit defeat.

582
00:40:22,615 --> 00:40:24,135
And I mean, let's just be honest.

583
00:40:24,435 --> 00:40:27,235
When has the US ever admitted they've been defeated?

584
00:40:28,415 --> 00:40:35,075
I also don't, just to be clear, I don't think the US leaving is a good idea.

585
00:40:35,635 --> 00:40:36,855
Like, sadly.

586
00:40:38,215 --> 00:40:38,655
Yeah.

587
00:40:39,015 --> 00:40:41,615
Iran maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz.

588
00:40:41,855 --> 00:40:45,455
Yeah, I was just addressing the waiting for the midterm situation.

589
00:40:46,095 --> 00:40:48,735
I think regardless, Trump's still going to do Trump things.

590
00:40:49,795 --> 00:40:51,275
I mean, he's still himself, right?

591
00:40:51,275 --> 00:40:54,735
Yeah, and the U.S. has never really admitted that, oh, we screwed up.

592
00:40:54,815 --> 00:40:55,515
We need to get out.

593
00:40:56,255 --> 00:41:01,635
They've always stayed long enough to try to make it look like it was, no, we made the decision and look what we did.

594
00:41:01,895 --> 00:41:06,795
So I don't think they're in the position or the U.S. is in the position to just go, yeah, this isn't working.

595
00:41:06,955 --> 00:41:07,195
We're out.

596
00:41:08,235 --> 00:41:14,815
Even if Trump is, if they do everything they can to block Trump after the midterms, as you're alluding to,

597
00:41:16,075 --> 00:41:20,435
the U.S. is still going to have to find a way to make this look like they're the ones who made

598
00:41:20,435 --> 00:41:22,755
the right decision, but they got to do it in a way

599
00:41:22,755 --> 00:41:24,155
to where this plays out in their favor.

600
00:41:24,575 --> 00:41:25,615
They can't just suddenly say,

601
00:41:26,015 --> 00:41:29,035
okay, we can control Congress and this is over.

602
00:41:29,315 --> 00:41:30,015
Everyone's getting out of there.

603
00:41:30,415 --> 00:41:32,715
That would be disastrous, not just for the US,

604
00:41:32,875 --> 00:41:33,675
but for the Middle East.

605
00:41:34,355 --> 00:41:35,955
Yeah, no, no, I totally agree.

606
00:41:36,575 --> 00:41:37,915
It's like one of, it's like,

607
00:41:37,975 --> 00:41:40,395
I mean, like most conflicts, right?

608
00:41:40,595 --> 00:41:42,555
It's not just finishing the conflict.

609
00:41:42,695 --> 00:41:43,475
It's how it finishes.

610
00:41:44,235 --> 00:41:45,135
Yeah, absolutely.

611
00:41:45,435 --> 00:41:46,615
Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely.

612
00:41:46,615 --> 00:41:48,975
We'll have a massive flow on effect.

613
00:41:49,175 --> 00:41:49,935
It's a mess, Daniel.

614
00:41:50,435 --> 00:41:52,715
It really is.

615
00:41:52,755 --> 00:41:53,615
There's no good answer.

616
00:41:54,615 --> 00:41:58,655
I mean, even from a strategical, if you're looking at it from a standpoint of strategy,

617
00:41:58,815 --> 00:42:01,315
it's just so much going on.

618
00:42:01,415 --> 00:42:04,535
There's so much nuance and intertwined relationships.

619
00:42:04,955 --> 00:42:07,135
And it's like, I don't know, man.

620
00:42:07,375 --> 00:42:09,175
I don't know what we're going to do about it.

621
00:42:09,175 --> 00:42:12,335
It's just very interesting to see how this is playing out in our time.

622
00:42:12,555 --> 00:42:14,375
It's one of those conflicts.

623
00:42:14,575 --> 00:42:16,935
It's like, it's not World War III, but it kind of is.

624
00:42:17,935 --> 00:42:18,155
You know?

625
00:42:18,535 --> 00:42:18,795
Yeah.

626
00:42:18,835 --> 00:42:19,315
It kind of is.

627
00:42:19,315 --> 00:42:22,155
It feels like we're sniffing at it at the moment.

628
00:42:22,835 --> 00:42:24,455
Yeah, yeah, exactly.

629
00:42:26,095 --> 00:42:30,235
So let's talk about this here.

630
00:42:32,055 --> 00:42:32,915
Oh, here it is.

631
00:42:33,075 --> 00:42:36,775
I want to share this with you because I kind of brought this up with you offline.

632
00:42:37,335 --> 00:42:39,295
So this was interesting to me as well.

633
00:42:39,755 --> 00:42:47,915
So the denial of Trump supporting Saudi Arabia, okay, which leads Saudi Arabia to go, hey, we're going to go to your rival China, right?

634
00:42:47,915 --> 00:42:50,835
To try to basically stir up the US to do something.

635
00:42:51,975 --> 00:42:54,315
But this just happened a couple of days ago.

636
00:42:54,535 --> 00:42:59,235
So on Friday, Parliament Speaker Newman, I can't pronounce the name, so I won't.

637
00:42:59,355 --> 00:43:04,575
But anyway, he said that MACA joint defense agreement signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia,

638
00:43:04,815 --> 00:43:12,315
I'm sorry, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could expand to include Iran as a broader pact for

639
00:43:12,315 --> 00:43:14,075
the Muslim world.

640
00:43:14,075 --> 00:43:26,255
So Turkish President Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif signed the accord in August, similar to NATO's Article 5.

641
00:43:26,855 --> 00:43:30,375
An attack on one ally constitutes an attack on all.

642
00:43:30,615 --> 00:43:42,095
So originally they did this to defend themselves, kind of like a similar NATO agreement, so that if they attack one of the Gulf states, then we all stand together because of Iran.

643
00:43:42,095 --> 00:43:54,395
Because when this broke out, Iran was indiscriminately just firing at everybody and said, fine, if you're not going to step up on our behalf because we're all Muslim brothers or whatever it is that they claim, they're like, we're going to attack you too.

644
00:43:55,255 --> 00:43:56,775
And so that's what led to this agreement.

645
00:43:56,915 --> 00:44:02,095
But now they're saying, well, we might want to extend this to include Iran now for Muslim solidarity.

646
00:44:04,135 --> 00:44:04,535
Yeah.

647
00:44:04,875 --> 00:44:05,275
Thoughts?

648
00:44:05,275 --> 00:44:06,675
I think that's unlikely.

649
00:44:06,675 --> 00:44:13,875
I mean, at the end of the day, there's still the Sunni-Shia divide within Islam.

650
00:44:14,315 --> 00:44:15,155
There is, yes.

651
00:44:15,915 --> 00:44:25,995
I don't think Saudi Arabia being the biggest Sunni country and Iran being the biggest Shia country, I don't think that's likely.

652
00:44:25,995 --> 00:44:37,075
I think there's also now been talk that Turkey or Pakistan might send troops to support Saudi Arabia's fight against the Houthis.

653
00:44:37,635 --> 00:44:39,015
So, yeah.

654
00:44:39,535 --> 00:44:43,255
Yeah, you know, I see what you're saying.

655
00:44:43,355 --> 00:44:46,855
And I agree with you about that divide between Sunni and Shia.

656
00:44:46,855 --> 00:44:51,635
but would they find enough common ground

657
00:44:51,635 --> 00:44:54,515
to be able to stand in solidarity

658
00:44:54,515 --> 00:44:56,315
and defense against the world

659
00:44:56,315 --> 00:44:57,475
if it came down to it?

660
00:44:57,935 --> 00:45:00,795
Because the US is basically saying

661
00:45:00,795 --> 00:45:02,155
we're not going to be the ally you need.

662
00:45:03,095 --> 00:45:05,055
And Europe has largely been hesitant

663
00:45:05,055 --> 00:45:06,355
for many years as well.

664
00:45:06,775 --> 00:45:08,375
Although, as you said earlier,

665
00:45:08,495 --> 00:45:09,695
the UK has said,

666
00:45:09,795 --> 00:45:11,295
hey, we're going to go ahead and help Saudi.

667
00:45:12,895 --> 00:45:14,755
So even with those differences,

668
00:45:14,755 --> 00:45:17,495
is it still going to be enough

669
00:45:17,495 --> 00:45:19,415
you think when push comes to shove

670
00:45:19,415 --> 00:45:21,735
because of all that has been happening

671
00:45:21,735 --> 00:45:23,815
there how everyone's just losing money and power

672
00:45:23,815 --> 00:45:25,735
and they're losing

673
00:45:25,735 --> 00:45:27,595
their resources and ability to defend themselves

674
00:45:27,595 --> 00:45:29,615
do you think at some point they would

675
00:45:29,615 --> 00:45:31,535
try to include Iran or would that

676
00:45:31,535 --> 00:45:33,535
only happen if the regime

677
00:45:33,535 --> 00:45:35,615
was ever actually toppled

678
00:45:35,615 --> 00:45:39,895
I know

679
00:45:39,895 --> 00:45:41,655
that is a tough question

680
00:45:41,655 --> 00:45:43,535
yeah you know why because we're looking at

681
00:45:43,535 --> 00:45:44,655
look

682
00:45:44,755 --> 00:45:48,955
Okay, we're looking at a religion that has two different groups, highly divided.

683
00:45:49,375 --> 00:45:55,875
But if we look at Christianity, we've got many different sects and subdivisions of Christianity and Catholicism.

684
00:45:55,975 --> 00:45:58,175
Catholicism and Christianity aren't necessarily the same.

685
00:45:58,275 --> 00:46:00,655
They have slightly different beliefs, all built around Christ.

686
00:46:01,055 --> 00:46:05,075
But at the same time, if we're looking at Islam, it's all built around Allah and the Prophet Muhammad.

687
00:46:05,695 --> 00:46:06,295
Very similar.

688
00:46:06,295 --> 00:46:08,295
Now, there's some things like there's jihadism.

689
00:46:08,435 --> 00:46:23,635
There's that sixth pillar within the, I forget which side it is, but there's that sixth pillar that exists in the Islamic regime of Iran that doesn't exist, for example, in Saudi Arabia.

690
00:46:24,235 --> 00:46:35,635
But at the same time, if their fundamental beliefs are the same and they start to get to the point where like, well, we still align here and they finally see that, it could lead to a partnership.

691
00:46:36,295 --> 00:46:41,295
I think it could possibly lead to some loose agreement.

692
00:46:41,635 --> 00:46:45,555
It may never be like, hey, we're close friends and we're going to have a barbecue and drink beers, right?

693
00:46:45,615 --> 00:46:47,575
I understand that probably will never happen.

694
00:46:47,755 --> 00:46:53,815
But it may be enough for them to say we're close enough that we should band together and protect each other.

695
00:46:54,575 --> 00:46:55,095
Possibly.

696
00:46:56,095 --> 00:46:58,035
I mean, this did happen in Christianity, right?

697
00:46:58,155 --> 00:47:03,635
So back in the day, Protestants in the UK used to kill Catholics.

698
00:47:03,815 --> 00:47:05,255
I mean, they still fight in Northern Ireland.

699
00:47:05,255 --> 00:47:08,795
So, like, it is possible.

700
00:47:09,175 --> 00:47:20,075
I think there is like a maturing of the religion where you could just move past those differences and become, but I don't think it's anytime soon.

701
00:47:20,355 --> 00:47:21,235
Not very long.

702
00:47:22,055 --> 00:47:30,135
No, like the Islamic State, like, just as an example, they preferred to kill, I think, Shia.

703
00:47:30,315 --> 00:47:31,595
I can't remember which one they were either.

704
00:47:31,595 --> 00:47:34,775
They preferred to kill Shia Muslims than anybody else.

705
00:47:34,775 --> 00:47:41,975
That was the goal, was to rid the world of the other side of Islam because they see them as heretics.

706
00:47:42,855 --> 00:47:46,675
So I don't think they're that close to seeing eye to eye.

707
00:47:48,095 --> 00:47:57,975
As you said, there could be a relationship formed where it's purely on a pragmatic basis of they need each other because the world's falling apart so rapidly.

708
00:47:59,215 --> 00:48:03,295
But I don't think that would happen under the current regime.

709
00:48:03,295 --> 00:48:10,495
I don't think they would trust each other enough to get that close, especially Saudi.

710
00:48:11,695 --> 00:48:14,215
Iran's not going to trust Saudi and Saudi's not going to trust Iran.

711
00:48:14,735 --> 00:48:16,535
Saudi still has their links to the US.

712
00:48:16,915 --> 00:48:19,895
Iran recently attacked them.

713
00:48:20,975 --> 00:48:21,435
Oh, no, no.

714
00:48:21,675 --> 00:48:23,515
I completely see that.

715
00:48:23,655 --> 00:48:31,735
But I'm talking about the possibility of Saudi eventually just closing the relationship off with the US, for example.

716
00:48:31,735 --> 00:48:43,675
If this continues the way it's going and the U.S. never steps in to offer Saudi any support because the U.S. would be spread thin, could Saudi finally say, well, I think this has hit the end of the road here for us?

717
00:48:44,575 --> 00:48:46,715
I think China would be the country that would come in.

718
00:48:47,475 --> 00:48:47,875
Yeah.

719
00:48:48,315 --> 00:48:54,655
Not physically because they're not too keen to get outside of their own borders in a big way.

720
00:48:55,115 --> 00:48:58,435
But I think China would be the bridging relationship there.

721
00:48:59,295 --> 00:49:00,075
So yeah, there could be,

722
00:49:00,195 --> 00:49:01,595
but I think it would be more done

723
00:49:01,595 --> 00:49:03,695
through a relationship with China.

724
00:49:04,595 --> 00:49:05,115
Got it.

725
00:49:05,155 --> 00:49:07,315
It's more like through a larger power

726
00:49:07,315 --> 00:49:08,215
that would be a mediator.

727
00:49:08,855 --> 00:49:10,215
Yeah, because it would be more like

728
00:49:10,215 --> 00:49:12,155
Saudi goes to China being like,

729
00:49:12,315 --> 00:49:12,535
Right.

730
00:49:13,055 --> 00:49:13,755
That makes sense.

731
00:49:13,975 --> 00:49:15,135
We'll give you this,

732
00:49:15,315 --> 00:49:16,875
or we'll give you a better price on oil

733
00:49:16,875 --> 00:49:19,795
if you convince Iran to stop attacking us.

734
00:49:20,355 --> 00:49:21,915
And then they go to Iran and be like,

735
00:49:21,975 --> 00:49:22,215
all right.

736
00:49:22,775 --> 00:49:24,915
Yeah, no, that actually makes a lot of sense

737
00:49:24,915 --> 00:49:26,535
from that perspective for sure.

738
00:49:26,855 --> 00:49:28,415
So it still raises the question though,

739
00:49:28,435 --> 00:49:30,475
that why would they announce

740
00:49:30,475 --> 00:49:32,635
that they would possibly expand

741
00:49:32,635 --> 00:49:34,495
that relationship to include Iran, though?

742
00:49:34,595 --> 00:49:35,835
What's the play there, you think?

743
00:49:36,275 --> 00:49:38,315
I don't really know. It did seem a bit weird.

744
00:49:38,635 --> 00:49:39,115
Yeah, right?

745
00:49:39,215 --> 00:49:41,115
It kind of died a death pretty quickly, though.

746
00:49:42,515 --> 00:49:44,355
I don't think...

747
00:49:44,355 --> 00:49:46,035
That's true. It's just

748
00:49:46,035 --> 00:49:48,235
it was very interesting to make that announcement

749
00:49:48,235 --> 00:49:50,155
when your coalition was

750
00:49:50,155 --> 00:49:51,975
specifically put together to protect yourself

751
00:49:51,975 --> 00:49:53,615
from Iran

752
00:49:53,615 --> 00:49:55,895
and their proxies.

753
00:49:56,735 --> 00:49:58,395
Well, like, Turkey has a...

754
00:49:58,435 --> 00:50:01,515
interesting relationship with Iran.

755
00:50:01,855 --> 00:50:02,835
They share a border.

756
00:50:03,575 --> 00:50:05,315
And then Pakistan shares a border with them.

757
00:50:05,475 --> 00:50:08,615
And they have a relationship to a degree.

758
00:50:09,335 --> 00:50:12,895
So outside of Saudi, I think the other two partners there,

759
00:50:14,275 --> 00:50:18,935
without Saudi Arabia's involvement, could work something out.

760
00:50:20,075 --> 00:50:27,535
You know, Pakistan's an interesting country to speak of and all this.

761
00:50:27,535 --> 00:50:31,815
because I'm not quite sure where they sit with all this.

762
00:50:31,955 --> 00:50:32,155
I don't know.

763
00:50:32,215 --> 00:50:33,035
Maybe you could shed some light on it

764
00:50:33,035 --> 00:50:34,975
because they've been saying a few things recently

765
00:50:34,975 --> 00:50:37,055
and they are a nuclear power.

766
00:50:38,035 --> 00:50:43,495
And where do you think Pakistan would eventually fit into this conflict?

767
00:50:43,575 --> 00:50:46,535
Because it seems like they're slowly edging closer to it for whatever reason.

768
00:50:47,595 --> 00:50:49,835
What do you think is going to happen there?

769
00:50:49,835 --> 00:50:55,835
I think Pakistan's number one geopolitical priority is

770
00:50:55,835 --> 00:50:58,875
is and will almost always be India.

771
00:51:01,435 --> 00:51:03,595
They'll just be on the other side of the coin

772
00:51:03,595 --> 00:51:05,535
to whatever India's on, basically.

773
00:51:06,155 --> 00:51:06,455
Okay.

774
00:51:07,035 --> 00:51:11,215
I don't think either country can really stray

775
00:51:11,215 --> 00:51:13,815
too far away from a position

776
00:51:13,815 --> 00:51:15,815
that is the opposite to the other.

777
00:51:17,875 --> 00:51:18,515
Yeah.

778
00:51:19,115 --> 00:51:21,615
There's a lot of analysts that always point at

779
00:51:21,615 --> 00:51:25,175
India and Pakistan being the most likely place

780
00:51:25,175 --> 00:51:26,075
for a nuclear war

781
00:51:26,075 --> 00:51:26,715
because

782
00:51:26,715 --> 00:51:29,075
partly because of the significant

783
00:51:29,075 --> 00:51:30,655
overmatch that India has

784
00:51:30,655 --> 00:51:32,655
numerically against Pakistan

785
00:51:32,655 --> 00:51:34,835
and Pakistan's just open

786
00:51:34,835 --> 00:51:36,595
acknowledgement that

787
00:51:36,595 --> 00:51:37,895
they will nuke India

788
00:51:37,895 --> 00:51:39,655
off the bat.

789
00:51:40,295 --> 00:51:40,775
So about,

790
00:51:40,935 --> 00:51:42,135
I think it was a year or two,

791
00:51:42,135 --> 00:51:45,115
I think it was last year.

792
00:51:45,955 --> 00:51:47,015
I forgot what happened.

793
00:51:47,235 --> 00:51:48,615
Pakistan did make a statement

794
00:51:48,615 --> 00:51:51,755
about them possibly using

795
00:51:51,755 --> 00:51:53,435
nuclear weapons if they had to

796
00:51:53,435 --> 00:51:54,795
in defense of Iran.

797
00:51:55,175 --> 00:51:55,675
Okay.

798
00:51:56,215 --> 00:52:02,295
Um, I don't know if you recall that I did an episode on a while back, but they did make that statement. It was in the, it was in the news and all of a sudden it kind of

799
00:52:02,312 --> 00:52:04,312
got pulled away and everyone said, oh no, that was a false

800
00:52:04,312 --> 00:52:06,272
statement, but it was said and I think it was just

801
00:52:06,272 --> 00:52:07,152
pulled to cover it up.

802
00:52:08,772 --> 00:52:09,952
That's why I asked the questions.

803
00:52:11,072 --> 00:52:12,332
Is it more to the

804
00:52:12,332 --> 00:52:14,092
point that Pakistan is just

805
00:52:14,092 --> 00:52:16,192
posturing and trying to be recognized as

806
00:52:16,192 --> 00:52:17,932
a major power in the area rather than

807
00:52:17,932 --> 00:52:20,232
them actually willing to back Iran?

808
00:52:22,932 --> 00:52:23,372
Possibly.

809
00:52:23,892 --> 00:52:24,192
I think

810
00:52:24,192 --> 00:52:27,952
Pakistan has a lot of internal issues that

811
00:52:27,952 --> 00:52:30,132
creates a pretty

812
00:52:30,132 --> 00:52:31,052
chaotic

813
00:52:31,052 --> 00:52:33,832
situation for them where they're

814
00:52:33,832 --> 00:52:36,292
I think Imran Khan

815
00:52:36,292 --> 00:52:38,532
he was the leader

816
00:52:38,532 --> 00:52:40,412
got removed

817
00:52:40,412 --> 00:52:42,412
put in prison they still have a lot

818
00:52:42,412 --> 00:52:44,512
of like internal tensions over it

819
00:52:44,512 --> 00:52:45,612
so I think a lot like

820
00:52:45,612 --> 00:52:48,372
it's not uncommon that statements will come out

821
00:52:48,372 --> 00:52:50,392
of the country where it's like

822
00:52:50,392 --> 00:52:52,392
maybe one part of the country or like

823
00:52:52,392 --> 00:52:53,772
the military leadership decided

824
00:52:53,772 --> 00:52:56,392
we're going to say this and then the government

825
00:52:56,392 --> 00:52:58,692
like the fuck are you talking about

826
00:52:58,692 --> 00:53:00,092
that could have been the case

827
00:53:00,092 --> 00:53:01,672
Yeah, that definitely could have been the case.

828
00:53:02,132 --> 00:53:06,432
So Pakistan really, for as much as might be said or coming out of the country,

829
00:53:06,492 --> 00:53:09,012
is just at this point a non-issue with the Iran conflict.

830
00:53:09,352 --> 00:53:11,252
It sounds like they're just chirping for the most part.

831
00:53:11,732 --> 00:53:12,672
Yeah, I'd say so.

832
00:53:13,012 --> 00:53:17,952
And in reality, if they were to fire a nuclear weapon at anyone,

833
00:53:18,812 --> 00:53:24,252
India would fire a nuclear weapon at them just on principle at this point.

834
00:53:24,252 --> 00:53:29,632
There's been Indian military commanders who have made public statements

835
00:53:29,632 --> 00:53:31,032
that basically we should,

836
00:53:31,912 --> 00:53:33,932
I don't know if this translates

837
00:53:33,932 --> 00:53:35,192
as well to American English,

838
00:53:35,352 --> 00:53:36,992
but like eat a missile,

839
00:53:37,652 --> 00:53:39,412
like just take a nuclear weapon

840
00:53:39,412 --> 00:53:40,512
to destroy India.

841
00:53:40,932 --> 00:53:41,492
Yeah, understood.

842
00:53:41,672 --> 00:53:44,272
They just hate each other

843
00:53:44,272 --> 00:53:46,092
to another level.

844
00:53:46,092 --> 00:53:47,932
Yeah, so India is willing

845
00:53:47,932 --> 00:53:50,352
to take that damage and casualty

846
00:53:50,352 --> 00:53:52,252
to be able to get into a conflict

847
00:53:52,252 --> 00:53:53,212
with them legitimately

848
00:53:53,212 --> 00:53:54,232
to take them out.

849
00:53:54,232 --> 00:53:56,272
Yeah, basically.

850
00:53:56,772 --> 00:53:57,872
There's one general

851
00:53:57,872 --> 00:53:59,432
just chatting shit

852
00:53:59,632 --> 00:54:00,352
for the most part.

853
00:54:00,452 --> 00:54:01,052
But he said,

854
00:54:01,512 --> 00:54:02,912
let's fire nuclear weapons

855
00:54:02,912 --> 00:54:03,232
at them.

856
00:54:03,392 --> 00:54:04,392
They'll fire one back.

857
00:54:04,612 --> 00:54:05,252
We'll take it.

858
00:54:05,492 --> 00:54:06,512
We've got enough people.

859
00:54:07,232 --> 00:54:07,432
Fuck it.

860
00:54:07,432 --> 00:54:07,792
That's crazy.

861
00:54:07,992 --> 00:54:08,872
We can get rid of them

862
00:54:08,872 --> 00:54:09,472
once and for all.

863
00:54:09,532 --> 00:54:10,752
That's a crazy outlook, man.

864
00:54:11,492 --> 00:54:14,132
And with that being said,

865
00:54:14,192 --> 00:54:15,332
isn't Pakistan also

866
00:54:15,332 --> 00:54:18,792
fighting people

867
00:54:18,792 --> 00:54:19,872
in Afghanistan right now too?

868
00:54:20,452 --> 00:54:20,852
Yeah, yeah.

869
00:54:20,852 --> 00:54:22,992
So they have a massive issue

870
00:54:22,992 --> 00:54:23,412
with,

871
00:54:23,912 --> 00:54:25,212
it's basically the Taliban,

872
00:54:25,492 --> 00:54:26,812
but Taliban in Pakistan.

873
00:54:27,492 --> 00:54:28,552
Yeah, so they're supported

874
00:54:28,552 --> 00:54:29,932
by the Taliban in Afghanistan

875
00:54:29,932 --> 00:54:33,272
because they're the same tribe or ethnic group.

876
00:54:33,772 --> 00:54:33,812
Okay.

877
00:54:34,332 --> 00:54:39,012
So Pakistan have started attacking the Taliban in Kabul

878
00:54:39,012 --> 00:54:40,892
and they've done airstrikes in Kabul.

879
00:54:41,692 --> 00:54:45,072
So then the Taliban used, crazily,

880
00:54:45,312 --> 00:54:49,992
decided to use suicide bombers against Pakistan.

881
00:54:50,432 --> 00:54:52,592
Yeah, so that kind of flares up every now and again.

882
00:54:52,592 --> 00:54:56,912
Then they get a deal and it falls over in a couple of months.

883
00:54:56,912 --> 00:54:59,292
I think

884
00:54:59,292 --> 00:55:01,872
a lot of these issues I think

885
00:55:01,872 --> 00:55:02,452
are just

886
00:55:02,452 --> 00:55:05,232
before the age of social media

887
00:55:05,232 --> 00:55:07,652
would just be news that never really

888
00:55:07,652 --> 00:55:08,572
made the front page

889
00:55:08,572 --> 00:55:11,912
conflicts in a lot

890
00:55:11,912 --> 00:55:13,672
of these regions have been going on

891
00:55:13,672 --> 00:55:14,792
for thousands of years

892
00:55:14,792 --> 00:55:17,572
and will continue to go on

893
00:55:17,572 --> 00:55:18,872
for a thousand years because

894
00:55:18,872 --> 00:55:21,532
it's just the way things are

895
00:55:21,532 --> 00:55:23,612
and humans seem to love fighting

896
00:55:23,612 --> 00:55:24,032
each other

897
00:55:24,032 --> 00:55:26,592
I get it

898
00:55:26,592 --> 00:55:40,912
So basically to just squash this whole thing with Pakistan is no matter what we're seeing out there, what might be said or what we're hearing, they're really not in a position to even engage with this conflict between the US and Iran.

899
00:55:41,652 --> 00:55:43,052
No, no, I don't believe so.

900
00:55:43,052 --> 00:55:50,512
And if they were, they would open themselves up strategically to retaliatory strikes from India.

901
00:55:50,692 --> 00:55:50,872
Yeah.

902
00:55:51,092 --> 00:55:53,592
And just looking for an excuse, basically.

903
00:55:54,312 --> 00:55:54,612
Gotcha.

904
00:55:55,272 --> 00:55:55,492
Yeah.

905
00:55:55,852 --> 00:55:56,192
Huh.

906
00:55:56,592 --> 00:56:01,772
All right. So let's do this. This is something I haven't been paying attention to, and I know you have.

907
00:56:02,312 --> 00:56:10,712
So before we close this out, Daniel, can you please update us on what's going on with the Russia-Ukraine war and where that's headed?

908
00:56:10,712 --> 00:56:16,252
Because Ukraine's been attacking their oil refineries. There's gas shortages in Russia.

909
00:56:16,692 --> 00:56:19,732
I've made the comment sarcastically. I don't even know if that's true.

910
00:56:19,732 --> 00:56:26,612
I was like, at some point I started to ask, well, are the attacks on the refineries in Russia and what's going on in Iran tied somehow?

911
00:56:26,832 --> 00:56:29,312
Is it an attempt to control the oil all over the world?

912
00:56:29,512 --> 00:56:30,132
I don't know.

913
00:56:30,672 --> 00:56:32,032
That's what Trump said as well.

914
00:56:33,692 --> 00:56:37,132
Trump tried to blame the entire diesel price on Ukraine.

915
00:56:37,772 --> 00:56:39,032
And Ukraine were like, what the fuck?

916
00:56:39,532 --> 00:56:40,272
Crazy, right?

917
00:56:40,792 --> 00:56:40,992
Yeah.

918
00:56:41,052 --> 00:56:41,252
Wow.

919
00:56:41,352 --> 00:56:48,192
I mean, there is parts of, like all good Trump statements, there's a nugget of truth in there, right?

920
00:56:48,572 --> 00:56:49,252
Right, right.

921
00:56:49,252 --> 00:57:01,872
And then when Ukraine stepped in not long ago and helping the U.S. with intelligence with the conflict between Iran and the U.S., that was an interesting play by Zelensky.

922
00:57:02,252 --> 00:57:06,712
It's almost like trying to entice the U.S. to go, hey, we're helping you.

923
00:57:06,852 --> 00:57:08,332
Can you please give us a bit more?

924
00:57:08,912 --> 00:57:12,252
But the U.S., like as we were discussing earlier, even with the Iran conflict, we're not.

925
00:57:12,512 --> 00:57:14,572
U.S. is in a position to keep spreading themselves out right now.

926
00:57:14,572 --> 00:57:20,912
so um where does where does this conflict between russia and ukraine sit amidst all these other

927
00:57:20,912 --> 00:57:27,132
conflicts right now but what's what's going to happen here because i i've been reading and you

928
00:57:27,132 --> 00:57:32,172
probably you'll give me a better um assessment than what i probably could do on my own here for

929
00:57:32,172 --> 00:57:35,912
sure so i haven't been paying attention to it but i've been reading that the uk and france have

930
00:57:35,912 --> 00:57:40,232
slowly been coming together to step up and apply more pressure to russia or at least getting ready

931
00:57:40,232 --> 00:57:49,212
to. And I know Poland's just been itching to attack Russia at any moment anyway. But where is it at

932
00:57:49,212 --> 00:57:55,332
right now? What is going to be the consequences for Europe, for Russia, Ukraine? Where does this

933
00:57:55,332 --> 00:58:01,972
conflict fit in relation to everything else that's going on? I think where it is right now is basically

934
00:58:01,972 --> 00:58:08,152
probably where it was the last time someone told you where it was. Not much has changed.

935
00:58:08,152 --> 00:58:12,092
There are some small tactical changes on the ground.

936
00:58:12,592 --> 00:58:20,212
I didn't look into it, but apparently there was a reasonably large offensive by Ukraine and Lyman.

937
00:58:21,152 --> 00:58:29,332
But a lot of the ground stuff isn't really hugely important if you look at it from the strategic level.

938
00:58:29,332 --> 00:58:30,332
all.

939
00:58:30,332 --> 00:58:38,772
The big thing is the attacks on the fuel, but also on wild berries and ozone, which is

940
00:58:38,772 --> 00:58:41,332
like two Amazon equivalents within Russia.

941
00:58:41,332 --> 00:58:42,332
Yeah, just trying to like-

942
00:58:42,332 --> 00:58:43,332
The world distribution centers?

943
00:58:43,332 --> 00:58:44,332
Yeah.

944
00:58:44,332 --> 00:58:53,212
While they also look awesome, I think, from my perspective, they had a significant effect

945
00:58:53,212 --> 00:58:56,332
on bringing the war home for everyday Russians.

946
00:58:56,332 --> 00:58:57,332
Right, right, right.

947
00:58:57,332 --> 00:59:01,512
It's like imagine if your Amazon warehouse outside of your city was suddenly on fire

948
00:59:01,512 --> 00:59:04,852
and that's the first you've ever seen of this conflict.

949
00:59:05,032 --> 00:59:08,012
It's like, oh, yeah, we are actually at a war with someone.

950
00:59:08,012 --> 00:59:13,492
It really brings it home to make it real for everyday Russians.

951
00:59:14,792 --> 00:59:31,308
Whether that changes the actual situation probably not in a huge way It definitely hurts the economy a bit makes life a bit harder it makes distributing drone parts a bit more difficult and stop soldiers being able to buy their own equipment which puts more pressure on

952
00:59:31,308 --> 00:59:33,448
the Russian military logistics,

953
00:59:34,008 --> 00:59:34,888
which was already shit.

954
00:59:35,288 --> 00:59:37,448
So there's a lot of factors there.

955
00:59:37,788 --> 00:59:38,828
I think their biggest

956
00:59:38,828 --> 00:59:41,668
Ukraine's

957
00:59:41,668 --> 00:59:43,468
path to victory, is kind of

958
00:59:43,468 --> 00:59:45,468
how I put it, is to continue

959
00:59:45,468 --> 00:59:47,168
to hit oil infrastructure

960
00:59:47,168 --> 00:59:49,368
just all the time.

961
00:59:49,448 --> 00:59:50,928
Just never let it get fixed.

962
00:59:51,448 --> 00:59:55,268
The Russian economy is already absolutely running hot.

963
00:59:56,508 --> 00:59:57,308
Hotter than hot.

964
00:59:57,408 --> 00:59:59,208
It's been running hot for four years at this point.

965
01:00:00,568 --> 01:00:06,008
But it's definitely starting to get tough for Russia to keep this war going.

966
01:00:07,128 --> 01:00:14,108
How it ends is kind of similar to what I said about the Strait of Hormuz.

967
01:00:14,288 --> 01:00:16,548
It's not if it ends, it's how it ends.

968
01:00:16,548 --> 01:00:18,748
and that's a pretty scary

969
01:00:18,748 --> 01:00:21,128
thought I think

970
01:00:21,128 --> 01:00:22,208
because

971
01:00:22,208 --> 01:00:24,768
I don't see Putin

972
01:00:24,768 --> 01:00:26,128
just walking away

973
01:00:26,128 --> 01:00:28,028
I don't see him just

974
01:00:28,028 --> 01:00:28,988
giving

975
01:00:28,988 --> 01:00:32,728
somehow he could just create

976
01:00:32,728 --> 01:00:34,828
the idea that they won

977
01:00:34,828 --> 01:00:36,868
and go home but I don't think

978
01:00:36,868 --> 01:00:38,028
that's likely at this point

979
01:00:38,028 --> 01:00:41,008
so yeah

980
01:00:41,008 --> 01:00:44,808
currently it just seems like a stalemate

981
01:00:44,808 --> 01:00:46,228
we're just grinding

982
01:00:46,228 --> 01:00:48,548
forward. How much

983
01:00:48,548 --> 01:00:50,028
concern is there for the UK

984
01:00:50,028 --> 01:00:52,508
and France though right

985
01:00:52,508 --> 01:00:53,508
now? Because

986
01:00:53,508 --> 01:00:56,028
they're the

987
01:00:56,028 --> 01:00:58,408
two countries that have been the most vocal about this

988
01:00:58,408 --> 01:01:00,388
whole thing, aside from Poland, but it seems

989
01:01:00,388 --> 01:01:02,308
like they've been the most vocal about

990
01:01:02,308 --> 01:01:03,588
this conflict from the outset.

991
01:01:05,108 --> 01:01:06,068
And there was even

992
01:01:06,068 --> 01:01:07,368
talks of

993
01:01:07,368 --> 01:01:09,868
them being on

994
01:01:09,868 --> 01:01:12,668
a higher level of alert status

995
01:01:12,668 --> 01:01:13,888
due to Russia

996
01:01:13,888 --> 01:01:15,928
or what Putin said in the past.

997
01:01:16,228 --> 01:01:24,568
about possibly directing his attention towards European allies, for example, or NATO members.

998
01:01:25,228 --> 01:01:30,728
Do you think the UK and France are still at that heightened level of concern?

999
01:01:30,728 --> 01:01:35,608
Or has that kind of lowered after this war has been dragged out so long

1000
01:01:35,608 --> 01:01:38,988
and Ukraine has brought the war to them, as you said,

1001
01:01:39,528 --> 01:01:42,608
and they're destroying and intentionally attacking their infrastructure?

1002
01:01:42,608 --> 01:01:46,508
because I believe they're also targeting power infrastructure as well.

1003
01:01:47,048 --> 01:01:50,128
So they're literally trying to take their legs out from under them.

1004
01:01:50,428 --> 01:01:53,008
Ukraine's trying to take the legs out from under Russia at this point,

1005
01:01:53,348 --> 01:01:55,428
which is interesting for a smaller country,

1006
01:01:55,628 --> 01:01:58,408
comparatively to what Russia can possibly do.

1007
01:01:59,028 --> 01:02:01,768
So do you think the UK and France, for example,

1008
01:02:01,908 --> 01:02:06,608
do you think their level or height and level of alertness

1009
01:02:07,188 --> 01:02:09,948
has kind of died down a bit when it comes to this?

1010
01:02:10,648 --> 01:02:11,428
I think so.

1011
01:02:11,428 --> 01:02:17,748
I don't think the UK and France legitimately believe that Russia would attack them at this point.

1012
01:02:18,068 --> 01:02:18,308
Okay.

1013
01:02:19,208 --> 01:02:22,048
Because doing so would be tantamount to suicide, right?

1014
01:02:22,388 --> 01:02:26,648
As you said, Poland is chomping at the bit to get involved.

1015
01:02:27,708 --> 01:02:37,388
So firing a missile directly into just NATO, even if the US was to like sit on the fence.

1016
01:02:37,388 --> 01:02:40,188
I mean, it's getting pretty close to nuclear war at that point,

1017
01:02:40,448 --> 01:02:46,308
but it would be like dragging Europe in would be crazy at this point.

1018
01:02:46,448 --> 01:02:50,188
The Russian military is not even handling Ukraine that well.

1019
01:02:50,488 --> 01:02:54,248
They're not going to handle like even the NATO forces

1020
01:02:54,248 --> 01:02:56,628
that are currently based on their Western flank.

1021
01:02:57,188 --> 01:03:01,028
How quickly could they get to Moscow is kind of the thing.

1022
01:03:01,668 --> 01:03:03,548
Like they're just sitting there waiting to go.

1023
01:03:03,548 --> 01:03:08,728
So Russia almost certainly doesn't have the ability to stop them advancing.

1024
01:03:10,468 --> 01:03:12,148
Yeah, so I don't think that's…

1025
01:03:12,148 --> 01:03:14,548
I think there's a little bit of fear about…

1026
01:03:15,568 --> 01:03:21,628
There's been this story about Russia testing NATO's resolve around Article 5,

1027
01:03:21,628 --> 01:03:26,948
and I think Lithuania has come out as the place they think it might happen.

1028
01:03:26,948 --> 01:03:34,028
and then Poon made a speech yesterday where he said he knows that the Russian-speaking people

1029
01:03:34,028 --> 01:03:41,928
of the Baltic states are being mistreated, which is essentially the same kind of logic he gave in Ukraine.

1030
01:03:42,588 --> 01:03:42,768
Right.

1031
01:03:42,768 --> 01:03:50,008
And in the Russian constitution, it gives Russia the ability to protect Russian-speaking peoples

1032
01:03:50,008 --> 01:03:52,888
wherever they are in the world.

1033
01:03:52,888 --> 01:03:58,208
it's just a catch-all to allow him to conduct military action.

1034
01:03:59,048 --> 01:04:01,188
So there's a bit of worry there.

1035
01:04:01,188 --> 01:04:07,688
And I think that was the top kind of assessment

1036
01:04:07,688 --> 01:04:12,188
of what the CIA director was going to Moscow a few weeks ago

1037
01:04:12,188 --> 01:04:16,328
to talk about was, hey, think, hey, don't do that

1038
01:04:16,328 --> 01:04:18,748
because that's fucking mental.

1039
01:04:18,748 --> 01:04:22,308
so yeah and then there's also like

1040
01:04:22,308 --> 01:04:24,308
Kalinograd sits next to Lithuania

1041
01:04:24,308 --> 01:04:26,228
but also next to Poland

1042
01:04:26,228 --> 01:04:28,328
it's like that tiny little

1043
01:04:28,328 --> 01:04:30,548
bit of Russia

1044
01:04:30,548 --> 01:04:32,628
that sits away from the rest

1045
01:04:32,628 --> 01:04:32,988
of Russia

1046
01:04:32,988 --> 01:04:36,308
yeah

1047
01:04:36,308 --> 01:04:38,508
so I don't see much

1048
01:04:38,508 --> 01:04:40,628
changing but tensions are high

1049
01:04:40,628 --> 01:04:42,888
and what you said about

1050
01:04:42,888 --> 01:04:46,528
Putin or Russia actually even

1051
01:04:46,528 --> 01:04:48,728
like even if they wanted to test

1052
01:04:48,728 --> 01:04:50,868
NATO's resolve. Let's say

1053
01:04:50,868 --> 01:04:52,508
that he was crazy enough to do that.

1054
01:04:53,428 --> 01:04:54,748
The major allies

1055
01:04:54,748 --> 01:04:56,748
he would have that can actually offer any

1056
01:04:56,748 --> 01:04:58,688
real support, as in China, couldn't get

1057
01:04:58,688 --> 01:05:00,288
anything to them fast enough to be effective.

1058
01:05:01,308 --> 01:05:02,688
And it seems like even China, for all

1059
01:05:02,688 --> 01:05:04,628
their posturing, never doesn't, like you said, they don't

1060
01:05:04,628 --> 01:05:06,728
really want to get engaged in anything. I don't even

1061
01:05:06,728 --> 01:05:08,728
know how ready their military

1062
01:05:08,728 --> 01:05:10,648
actually is or how effective it

1063
01:05:10,648 --> 01:05:12,548
actually is. I think most of it's window

1064
01:05:12,548 --> 01:05:14,648
dressing. They have technology, but I don't know

1065
01:05:14,648 --> 01:05:16,308
how readily

1066
01:05:16,308 --> 01:05:18,708
able their troops really are

1067
01:05:18,708 --> 01:05:20,568
and able to fight.

1068
01:05:21,768 --> 01:05:22,428
I don't know.

1069
01:05:23,148 --> 01:05:24,588
And then North Korea

1070
01:05:24,588 --> 01:05:26,808
has been the other country

1071
01:05:26,808 --> 01:05:28,768
that has been directly sending troops

1072
01:05:28,768 --> 01:05:29,888
and whatever to support Russia.

1073
01:05:30,508 --> 01:05:31,808
Iran can't do anything.

1074
01:05:33,428 --> 01:05:34,728
And so I think

1075
01:05:34,728 --> 01:05:36,428
maybe you're correct.

1076
01:05:36,668 --> 01:05:38,728
They would just be on an island at that point

1077
01:05:38,728 --> 01:05:40,628
trying to fight the world because

1078
01:05:40,628 --> 01:05:42,888
their allies would not be able to rush to their rescue

1079
01:05:42,888 --> 01:05:44,328
in an effective manner.

1080
01:05:45,128 --> 01:05:46,268
You also have the

1081
01:05:46,268 --> 01:05:48,068
China

1082
01:05:48,068 --> 01:05:50,968
would probably want to take back

1083
01:05:50,968 --> 01:05:53,348
some lost territories that they lost to Russia

1084
01:05:53,348 --> 01:05:55,308
in the Sino-Russian wars.

1085
01:05:56,008 --> 01:05:57,408
So China would probably just be like,

1086
01:05:57,508 --> 01:05:58,308
well, if you're gone,

1087
01:05:58,448 --> 01:06:00,228
we're just going to use our military.

1088
01:06:01,508 --> 01:06:03,968
Russia, hypothetical situation,

1089
01:06:04,528 --> 01:06:05,628
Russia attacks Lithuania,

1090
01:06:06,228 --> 01:06:07,728
Article 5 is triggered,

1091
01:06:08,348 --> 01:06:10,028
NATO troops move into Russia

1092
01:06:10,028 --> 01:06:13,708
to seize Moscow and remove the regime.

1093
01:06:15,228 --> 01:06:16,688
China can't, as you said,

1094
01:06:16,688 --> 01:06:19,368
can't mount troops to get them there to defend.

1095
01:06:20,228 --> 01:06:22,308
So why not just take back all the,

1096
01:06:22,448 --> 01:06:23,708
like just go north,

1097
01:06:24,228 --> 01:06:26,268
take the rest of Eastern Russia,

1098
01:06:26,668 --> 01:06:27,448
claim it as your own,

1099
01:06:28,708 --> 01:06:29,668
extend your own borders.

1100
01:06:30,088 --> 01:06:31,108
Yeah, I can see that.

1101
01:06:31,108 --> 01:06:32,588
Claim that they were always part of China.

1102
01:06:33,348 --> 01:06:33,868
Yeah, actually,

1103
01:06:34,048 --> 01:06:36,008
that's an interesting point you brought up

1104
01:06:36,008 --> 01:06:39,548
because the relationship between Russia and China is,

1105
01:06:39,688 --> 01:06:41,488
I mean, it's just a matter of convenience.

1106
01:06:41,488 --> 01:06:57,743
It like you know both countries were built on communist principles I think it was the only thing that ever really held them together That and it them against the West or the big bad USA right So once Russia ability to be effective is gone like you said yeah good point

1107
01:06:57,823 --> 01:07:02,223
There's nothing stopping China from taking their territories back and maybe even pushing

1108
01:07:02,223 --> 01:07:04,343
further and taking more Russian territory itself.

1109
01:07:04,883 --> 01:07:04,903
Maybe.

1110
01:07:05,123 --> 01:07:05,423
Yeah.

1111
01:07:05,723 --> 01:07:10,663
And there's a lot of like, I don't know, Russia would probably just fall apart at that point.

1112
01:07:10,663 --> 01:07:11,703
Very interesting.

1113
01:07:12,223 --> 01:07:12,323
Yeah.

1114
01:07:12,443 --> 01:07:12,603
Yeah.

1115
01:07:13,083 --> 01:07:18,443
Finland, there's a lot of countries that would be pretty keen to get some territory back from Russia.

1116
01:07:18,723 --> 01:07:19,303
Oh, absolutely.

1117
01:07:20,863 --> 01:07:21,803
Yeah, they would.

1118
01:07:22,143 --> 01:07:23,483
Picking over the carcass.

1119
01:07:23,763 --> 01:07:25,123
But then they also have nuclear weapons.

1120
01:07:25,483 --> 01:07:26,143
So that's the other.

1121
01:07:27,523 --> 01:07:31,443
Yeah, that's what's stopping them just biffing a nuclear weapon on their way out the door.

1122
01:07:32,163 --> 01:07:36,643
I mean, yeah, Russia in a death rattle would not be a good situation for the surrounding.

1123
01:07:37,403 --> 01:07:41,523
Yeah, and that's what I mean about how the war in Ukrainians is what worries me.

1124
01:07:41,523 --> 01:07:42,723
Right, right.

1125
01:07:42,723 --> 01:07:50,743
So to that, Daniel, Ukraine's brought the war to the doorstep to Russia, to the people.

1126
01:07:50,963 --> 01:07:58,063
Effectively, like you said, they can literally see what's happening now, attacking their infrastructure, oil, energy.

1127
01:07:59,623 --> 01:08:02,523
They're equivalent to Amazon, whatever, which is crazy.

1128
01:08:02,523 --> 01:08:07,523
But then you have Trump telling Ukraine to back off.

1129
01:08:08,923 --> 01:08:15,023
I think that was part of him trying to deflect the price of diesel.

1130
01:08:15,803 --> 01:08:21,983
I think he just wanted a soundbite of, because what he said was something around of like,

1131
01:08:22,303 --> 01:08:27,883
we need Ukraine to stop bombing Russian oil refineries because it's driving up the price

1132
01:08:27,883 --> 01:08:28,303
of diesel.

1133
01:08:28,303 --> 01:08:34,723
so that's a lovely soundbite where it's like to his and this is probably only going out to like

1134
01:08:34,723 --> 01:08:41,903
his dedicated support base is ukraine is driving up the price of diesel so it's their fault i can

1135
01:08:41,903 --> 01:08:50,783
blame them and it doesn't matter you can forget about iran at that point yeah yeah that would be

1136
01:08:50,783 --> 01:08:58,123
my i get that but i the thing i've seen is with trump is like where does i'm not sure where he's

1137
01:08:58,123 --> 01:09:03,963
stance because he's been in the middle on one hand applauding Ukraine on the other hand telling

1138
01:09:03,963 --> 01:09:10,723
them to stop biting the heels of Russia it's like he wants to be Putin's friend but won't do anything

1139
01:09:10,723 --> 01:09:16,323
to really tell Putin to back off or do anything that would that would cause him to back down

1140
01:09:16,323 --> 01:09:22,063
and then at the same time he's lending support to Ukraine whenever it's convenient so I'm not

1141
01:09:22,063 --> 01:09:25,403
really sure where he's at or what the actual play is by the administration unless you could

1142
01:09:25,403 --> 01:09:27,483
show some light on that. I don't think

1143
01:09:27,483 --> 01:09:29,483
they know that most

1144
01:09:29,483 --> 01:09:31,523
of the time. It does seem like

1145
01:09:31,523 --> 01:09:33,503
I mean, Ukraine's made it pretty clear

1146
01:09:33,503 --> 01:09:35,383
that they're no longer reliant on US

1147
01:09:35,383 --> 01:09:36,883
support. They did, yes.

1148
01:09:37,403 --> 01:09:39,503
The US has lost their ability

1149
01:09:39,503 --> 01:09:41,423
to apply significant pressure.

1150
01:09:42,143 --> 01:09:43,603
I mean, they tried, right? And then

1151
01:09:43,603 --> 01:09:45,623
Ukraine just went, all right, sweet.

1152
01:09:45,783 --> 01:09:46,903
We'll just make our own missiles.

1153
01:09:48,363 --> 01:09:49,643
And then there's also like

1154
01:09:49,643 --> 01:09:51,463
I mean, this isn't really related to your

1155
01:09:51,463 --> 01:09:53,343
question, sorry, but it was something I thought about earlier.

1156
01:09:53,723 --> 01:09:55,383
It's like the Patriot missiles

1157
01:09:55,383 --> 01:09:59,823
they discussed giving Ukraine a license to make them.

1158
01:10:00,783 --> 01:10:02,963
And then I think it was, I don't know if it was Lockheed Martin

1159
01:10:02,963 --> 01:10:05,543
or whoever makes them, turned around and said,

1160
01:10:06,003 --> 01:10:07,483
no, no, no, we're not doing that

1161
01:10:07,483 --> 01:10:10,443
because Ukraine will probably make them way cheaper.

1162
01:10:10,963 --> 01:10:13,463
And then our entire business model is falling apart.

1163
01:10:14,243 --> 01:10:15,783
And it's like, okay, cool,

1164
01:10:15,903 --> 01:10:19,383
but that's such a fucking stupid situation to be in now

1165
01:10:19,383 --> 01:10:22,923
because it's not just Ukraine that needs Patriot missiles anymore.

1166
01:10:23,203 --> 01:10:24,423
It's all of the Middle East.

1167
01:10:24,423 --> 01:10:27,863
and if you're not willing to make them fast enough

1168
01:10:27,863 --> 01:10:29,603
at a decent price.

1169
01:10:31,743 --> 01:10:34,523
I mean, this is the military-industrial complex

1170
01:10:34,523 --> 01:10:35,783
we've got ourselves into

1171
01:10:35,783 --> 01:10:39,423
of allowing these companies to say that.

1172
01:10:41,583 --> 01:10:44,023
These weapons are vital to defend

1173
01:10:44,023 --> 01:10:45,943
Western interests globally

1174
01:10:45,943 --> 01:10:49,303
and because you don't want them to be too cheap,

1175
01:10:50,263 --> 01:10:52,503
you won't let the other country make them.

1176
01:10:53,263 --> 01:10:53,463
I don't know.

1177
01:10:54,423 --> 01:10:56,743
So beyond politics, right?

1178
01:10:57,403 --> 01:10:57,623
Yeah.

1179
01:10:58,083 --> 01:11:12,643
Definitely beyond politics, where the manufacturers themselves can determine how prolonged the war is, or they could even end it by cutting off the supply to another nation, rendering them basically taking their ability to throw themselves away.

1180
01:11:13,123 --> 01:11:22,763
So now they're going to have to rely on other resources or black markets, etc., to try to get these things, if that's even possible.

1181
01:11:23,563 --> 01:11:25,643
Yeah, I mean, for air defense, it's not really.

1182
01:11:26,523 --> 01:11:29,943
So then you have to start trying to make your own, which is what we've seen in Ukraine.

1183
01:11:30,543 --> 01:11:32,703
But then you do, it does drive innovation.

1184
01:11:33,123 --> 01:11:37,963
It does create, like, Ukraine's counter-US systems are now world-leading.

1185
01:11:38,363 --> 01:11:40,703
They've now taken those to the Middle East to help them.

1186
01:11:40,963 --> 01:11:49,003
So, like, there are flow-on effects here that are not good for, well, not good for the profit margins of Lockheed Martin.

1187
01:11:49,463 --> 01:11:50,743
Yeah, well, you know what?

1188
01:11:50,743 --> 01:11:57,243
maybe things will change because I just saw a news report earlier how there was concerns about

1189
01:11:57,243 --> 01:12:05,823
F-35 parts and whatever. When I said for the listeners, I was late to this recording. I'm

1190
01:12:05,823 --> 01:12:11,323
currently editing a video about that. Are you? Yeah. I'm halfway through editing it. Okay.

1191
01:12:11,323 --> 01:12:12,383
So it's almost done.

1192
01:12:13,463 --> 01:12:21,543
The crux was, it turns out, F-35 parts are all pulled in a global stockpile, right?

1193
01:12:21,903 --> 01:12:22,203
Okay.

1194
01:12:22,263 --> 01:12:25,143
And to get them around the world, you just use UPS.

1195
01:12:26,123 --> 01:12:28,223
Just shipped like any other package.

1196
01:12:28,963 --> 01:12:37,063
And two parts, which was a bomb bay door and I think a cover of something,

1197
01:12:37,743 --> 01:12:40,783
was rerouted on their way back to the US.

1198
01:12:40,783 --> 01:12:44,723
They were deemed to be defective or like broken.

1199
01:12:45,443 --> 01:12:47,543
They were flown to South Korea.

1200
01:12:48,003 --> 01:12:50,583
And then as far as nobody can understand,

1201
01:12:50,703 --> 01:12:52,303
they were then rerouted to Hong Kong

1202
01:12:52,303 --> 01:12:54,463
where they were seized by Chinese customs

1203
01:12:54,463 --> 01:12:56,143
who still have them.

1204
01:12:56,763 --> 01:12:58,863
They were seized in June.

1205
01:13:00,103 --> 01:13:01,423
They haven't given them back.

1206
01:13:02,663 --> 01:13:02,883
Really?

1207
01:13:03,023 --> 01:13:03,163
Yeah.

1208
01:13:04,363 --> 01:13:06,763
The kind of counter argument is

1209
01:13:06,763 --> 01:13:10,463
there's not really huge amounts.

1210
01:13:10,783 --> 01:13:11,783
they can get from them.

1211
01:13:12,163 --> 01:13:19,763
There is information around the counter radar film that is put on them, because especially

1212
01:13:19,763 --> 01:13:26,243
the Bombay door sits on the outside of the aircraft, so it has the counter radar stuff.

1213
01:13:26,243 --> 01:13:33,643
There was one kind of worry around that specific part is known to have an issue, whether the

1214
01:13:33,643 --> 01:13:36,243
film breaks near one of the corners.

1215
01:13:36,243 --> 01:13:39,023
so they're worried that China might be able to

1216
01:13:39,023 --> 01:13:41,243
identify this issue with this

1217
01:13:41,243 --> 01:13:42,923
one part and use that to

1218
01:13:42,923 --> 01:13:45,403
develop radar

1219
01:13:45,403 --> 01:13:47,363
that can target that finite

1220
01:13:47,363 --> 01:13:49,123
point. Interesting.

1221
01:13:50,083 --> 01:13:50,923
But yeah,

1222
01:13:51,203 --> 01:13:51,663
it's gone.

1223
01:13:53,923 --> 01:13:55,203
My kind of assessment

1224
01:13:55,203 --> 01:13:57,343
is this is probably just going to die

1225
01:13:57,343 --> 01:13:58,103
out in the news

1226
01:13:58,103 --> 01:14:00,363
very quickly.

1227
01:14:00,783 --> 01:14:02,523
China will probably never give it back.

1228
01:14:03,543 --> 01:14:16,739
The US will go fuck Australia claiming that they not really that sensitive so it doesn really matter Oh so they were sent from Australia Right Because there a big repair hub for all of Asia

1229
01:14:16,739 --> 01:14:22,839
So F-35s for Singapore, Japan, South Korea are all repaired in Australia,

1230
01:14:23,179 --> 01:14:26,799
as well as aircraft carriers can send their fighter jets there

1231
01:14:26,799 --> 01:14:28,499
when they're in the Paycom region.

1232
01:14:29,759 --> 01:14:32,599
Yeah, so that's why the part was coming from Australia.

1233
01:14:33,319 --> 01:14:33,459
Yeah.

1234
01:14:33,719 --> 01:14:43,239
Do you think that countries may start to look and looking for alternative sources for weapons to defend themselves and whatnot?

1235
01:14:43,399 --> 01:14:45,019
Like we're just talking about the Ukraine situation.

1236
01:14:45,559 --> 01:14:48,699
Could they consider buying from China, for example?

1237
01:14:49,399 --> 01:14:49,599
No.

1238
01:14:49,999 --> 01:14:55,959
I don't think any Western country would fancy buying critical weapon systems.

1239
01:14:56,439 --> 01:15:00,799
Dumb weapon systems such as like firearms, maybe.

1240
01:15:00,799 --> 01:15:07,459
But then again, why would Europe decide to buy Chinese?

1241
01:15:07,879 --> 01:15:11,099
They are building their own infrastructure.

1242
01:15:12,159 --> 01:15:16,339
I think Europe is more likely to start buying only European stuff.

1243
01:15:17,479 --> 01:15:19,779
Countries like South America, maybe.

1244
01:15:20,659 --> 01:15:20,799
Okay.

1245
01:15:21,499 --> 01:15:24,799
But yeah, anything tech is...

1246
01:15:25,439 --> 01:15:26,959
I get that.

1247
01:15:26,959 --> 01:15:28,639
I get why and the reasons.

1248
01:15:28,639 --> 01:15:34,759
And I believe that these countries should be self-sufficient, be able to produce their own munitions and technologies because they are capable.

1249
01:15:35,439 --> 01:15:46,899
But I guess in a situation where your munitions and your defense capabilities are just depleting to a level you can't replace them quick enough, you think they still wouldn't take that option?

1250
01:15:49,139 --> 01:15:50,259
Not from China.

1251
01:15:50,619 --> 01:15:50,899
Okay.

1252
01:15:51,439 --> 01:15:53,259
I think the risks are too high.

1253
01:15:53,259 --> 01:16:05,099
This already talks about even close allies not being too comfortable with the amount of control the US has over highly technical weapon systems where they can kill switch them.

1254
01:16:06,099 --> 01:16:12,979
If you're already worried about that for your closest allies, your biggest adversary is not really the person.

1255
01:16:13,559 --> 01:16:14,159
That's true.

1256
01:16:15,639 --> 01:16:18,219
But okay, so what if Japan steps up though?

1257
01:16:18,379 --> 01:16:21,419
Because aren't they starting to manufacture or get back into manufacturing?

1258
01:16:21,419 --> 01:16:24,919
I mean, yeah, yeah.

1259
01:16:25,859 --> 01:16:31,519
I think there's going to be a big, like my overarching theory as we're going,

1260
01:16:32,019 --> 01:16:36,319
it's not my theory to be completely fair, it's the theory of a lot of smarter people,

1261
01:16:36,439 --> 01:16:42,419
but we're going to go back to like cheaper, dumber, not dumber in the sense of like stupid,

1262
01:16:42,659 --> 01:16:50,419
but like lower tech, easier to replace, easier to manufacture, faster at a more higher volumes.

1263
01:16:50,419 --> 01:16:52,299
I think drone warfare has shown

1264
01:16:52,299 --> 01:16:54,679
the advantages of

1265
01:16:54,679 --> 01:16:56,099
lower tech

1266
01:16:56,099 --> 01:16:58,279
not lower tech, sorry, I keep saying that

1267
01:16:58,279 --> 01:16:59,679
like lower price

1268
01:16:59,679 --> 01:17:01,579
much more mass producible

1269
01:17:01,579 --> 01:17:04,279
weapon systems and how they fare

1270
01:17:04,279 --> 01:17:06,399
against even say the F-35

1271
01:17:06,399 --> 01:17:06,959
right

1272
01:17:06,959 --> 01:17:09,959
I think these high end

1273
01:17:09,959 --> 01:17:11,419
really expensive

1274
01:17:11,419 --> 01:17:14,279
top of the line

1275
01:17:14,279 --> 01:17:16,319
weapon systems may have seen

1276
01:17:16,319 --> 01:17:18,119
their heyday and that

1277
01:17:18,119 --> 01:17:19,479
we're now going back to

1278
01:17:20,419 --> 01:17:21,759
pretty rough and ready solutions.

1279
01:17:22,399 --> 01:17:23,539
Yeah, I think I agree with you

1280
01:17:23,539 --> 01:17:24,879
because if anything,

1281
01:17:24,979 --> 01:17:26,159
between these two conflicts,

1282
01:17:26,239 --> 01:17:27,319
being Iran and Ukraine,

1283
01:17:27,439 --> 01:17:29,519
we've seen the benefit of having

1284
01:17:29,519 --> 01:17:33,039
the ability to produce cheaply enough...

1285
01:17:33,039 --> 01:17:33,899
Fuck loads of drones.

1286
01:17:34,199 --> 01:17:34,719
Exactly.

1287
01:17:35,199 --> 01:17:37,279
And for all the technology

1288
01:17:37,279 --> 01:17:38,639
the US or anybody has,

1289
01:17:38,699 --> 01:17:40,039
it doesn't matter how advanced it is,

1290
01:17:40,079 --> 01:17:41,379
you can't defend against

1291
01:17:41,379 --> 01:17:43,399
two million drones flying in

1292
01:17:43,399 --> 01:17:44,459
ready to...

1293
01:17:44,459 --> 01:17:44,899
Yeah.

1294
01:17:44,999 --> 01:17:46,439
...in a kamikaze-style method

1295
01:17:46,439 --> 01:17:47,879
to just destroy you.

1296
01:17:48,019 --> 01:17:49,339
I mean, you can only defend

1297
01:17:49,339 --> 01:17:51,239
against so much before they start getting through.

1298
01:17:52,239 --> 01:17:53,499
And now we saw

1299
01:17:53,499 --> 01:17:55,519
in Russia where they're using that Shahed style drone

1300
01:17:55,519 --> 01:17:56,859
but a jet-powered version?

1301
01:17:57,659 --> 01:17:58,099
Right?

1302
01:17:58,619 --> 01:17:58,739
Yeah.

1303
01:18:00,819 --> 01:18:03,399
Great point. I think you're right.

1304
01:18:03,459 --> 01:18:05,419
It may get to the point where people are

1305
01:18:05,419 --> 01:18:07,299
going to start losing the

1306
01:18:07,299 --> 01:18:09,039
sense of value in these

1307
01:18:09,039 --> 01:18:10,719
advanced technologies because

1308
01:18:10,719 --> 01:18:12,919
at some point it's just about

1309
01:18:12,919 --> 01:18:15,319
just sheer numbers

1310
01:18:15,319 --> 01:18:16,919
of what you have.

1311
01:18:16,919 --> 01:18:20,099
and replace them quickly, right?

1312
01:18:20,659 --> 01:18:22,399
The cost of one F-35

1313
01:18:22,399 --> 01:18:25,679
versus the cost of a million Shahid drones.

1314
01:18:25,859 --> 01:18:26,739
Yeah, yeah.

1315
01:18:27,359 --> 01:18:27,619
Crazy.

1316
01:18:27,619 --> 01:18:28,419
I know what I'd pick.

1317
01:18:28,999 --> 01:18:29,919
Yeah, absolutely.

1318
01:18:30,439 --> 01:18:33,099
I mean, it'd be great to have a few F-35s,

1319
01:18:33,159 --> 01:18:34,479
but I mean, a bunch of Shahid drones,

1320
01:18:34,599 --> 01:18:35,019
I don't know.

1321
01:18:35,579 --> 01:18:37,319
I reckon we can get the job done.

1322
01:18:37,699 --> 01:18:38,359
I could do it.

1323
01:18:38,359 --> 01:18:40,199
And then Ukraine's been very effective

1324
01:18:40,199 --> 01:18:42,819
at making their own versions of drones.

1325
01:18:42,959 --> 01:18:44,619
I mean, I think they pretty much have been pioneering

1326
01:18:44,619 --> 01:18:46,599
the low-cost drone warfare.

1327
01:18:46,599 --> 01:18:52,479
Yeah, and even up to ballistic missiles now, they have their own Ukraine-made ballistic

1328
01:18:52,479 --> 01:18:57,039
missiles that are highly accurate, fly low, get past air defenses.

1329
01:18:58,859 --> 01:18:59,899
Crazy world general.

1330
01:19:00,079 --> 01:19:04,199
Also, Andrew, a US company, I'm sure you've heard of them.

1331
01:19:05,479 --> 01:19:07,099
They're big on this as well.

1332
01:19:08,319 --> 01:19:14,919
Palmer Lucky, the founder of the company, he's said in numerous interviews and podcasts

1333
01:19:14,919 --> 01:19:19,379
that the US needs to go back to being able to manufacture their weaponry

1334
01:19:19,379 --> 01:19:21,679
in a normal factory,

1335
01:19:21,999 --> 01:19:25,299
to not need highly made precision equipment

1336
01:19:25,299 --> 01:19:28,119
that costs astronomical amounts of money.

1337
01:19:28,799 --> 01:19:31,899
We need to go back to what we're good at, basically.

1338
01:19:32,579 --> 01:19:32,859
Yeah.

1339
01:19:33,339 --> 01:19:34,579
No, I totally agree.

1340
01:19:35,419 --> 01:19:37,279
All right, Daniel, I think I kept you long enough.

1341
01:19:37,739 --> 01:19:39,819
Is there anything else you want to add

1342
01:19:39,819 --> 01:19:44,459
to maybe define a little bit more

1343
01:19:44,459 --> 01:19:45,939
on what your points were

1344
01:19:45,939 --> 01:19:47,439
on any of these conversations?

1345
01:19:48,239 --> 01:19:49,479
Nah, to be completely honest,

1346
01:19:49,579 --> 01:19:50,879
I've forgotten everything I've said.

1347
01:19:51,879 --> 01:19:55,779
All right.

1348
01:19:55,839 --> 01:19:56,879
Appreciate your time.

1349
01:19:57,459 --> 01:19:57,919
No worries.

1350
01:19:58,999 --> 01:20:00,919
Everybody, you can check out Daniel.

1351
01:20:01,359 --> 01:20:02,739
Tell everybody about your podcast

1352
01:20:02,739 --> 01:20:04,999
and everything that you do

1353
01:20:04,999 --> 01:20:06,719
to get information out to the world.

1354
01:20:07,659 --> 01:20:09,799
Yeah, so I have a daily podcast

1355
01:20:09,819 --> 01:20:16,119
podcast during the week, though I might be changing it very soon. I've got a lot going on.

1356
01:20:16,239 --> 01:20:20,019
I've got HM Intelligence YouTube channel. That's the main thing to plug. Go check it out. I try

1357
01:20:20,019 --> 01:20:26,379
and make weekly videos, though that might be becoming more common more often as I refine a

1358
01:20:26,379 --> 01:20:36,399
few processes or HM Intelligence on Instagram. That's the main place where I spin a yarn daily

1359
01:20:36,399 --> 01:20:38,559
about something that's going on.

1360
01:20:38,879 --> 01:20:40,399
Here's your YouTube channel right here

1361
01:20:40,399 --> 01:20:41,539
for everybody who,

1362
01:20:41,779 --> 01:20:43,499
that way it's easily recognizable.

1363
01:20:43,819 --> 01:20:44,659
So there it is.

1364
01:20:45,179 --> 01:20:46,299
That's HM Intelligence.

1365
01:20:46,559 --> 01:20:47,619
That's Daniel's website.

1366
01:20:48,239 --> 01:20:49,099
Or not website, it's YouTube.

1367
01:20:49,319 --> 01:20:49,979
Plenty of videos,

1368
01:20:50,179 --> 01:20:50,999
plenty of information.

1369
01:20:51,539 --> 01:20:53,479
He's absolutely great at what he does.

1370
01:20:53,559 --> 01:20:55,279
So do take what he does serious.

1371
01:20:56,399 --> 01:20:58,539
And that being said,

1372
01:20:58,599 --> 01:21:00,279
Daniel, I appreciate your time, sir.

1373
01:21:00,539 --> 01:21:02,999
Thank you for coming on the show

1374
01:21:02,999 --> 01:21:04,219
and helping us understand

1375
01:21:04,219 --> 01:21:05,119
a bit of what's happening.

1376
01:21:05,119 --> 01:21:09,059
and we'll stay in touch and I'll reach out again down the road.

1377
01:21:09,599 --> 01:21:10,899
Sounds good. Thank you very much.